When you first look into investing in stocks, you’ll often hear about how a company’s stock is overvalued. Valuation is one of the most interesting elements of investing in stocks.  In some ways, valuation is completely subjective and trying to determine the value of a company’s stock is what the whole game is all about.  Still, stock valuation is one of the few things any investor can pin their hat on, so trying to determine whether stocks are overvalued or not will always be a common endeavor.

Is GOOG Overvalued?

Is GOOG Overvalued?

Ratios like P/E have been used for decades in order to try and quantitatively judge the value of a stock. Whether you agree with the rational or not, you can see how it’s important to at least have a relative scale when you’re attempting to assess stock valuation. That way, you can make a valuation assessment for the stock, relative to its peers. This gives you a reference point for your valuation.  Keep in mind, there are numerous valuation indicators you can use, and some of them might end up being contradictory. It’s up to you to determine which metrics you use.  Not only that, but you should understand why you choose the ones you did.  Further, you need to use a disciplined approach to investing if you choose a valuation method.

Overvalued Stocks Are Trading For Too High Of A P/E

Most analysts who are referring to ‘overvaluation’ mean that the P/E ratio looks ‘too high.’  They do not want to pay that multiple for that amount of earnings.  To them, this overvalued situation will likely be corrected when the stock crashes. A high P/E says the stock has already ‘ran up’ and if you chase it, you won’t make your money back. However, this judgment can sometimes be overruled if a stock has revenues that are growing very fast.  That’s why some people will combine P/E with a second indicator to determine their formula for whether the company’s stock is overpriced.  Some consider the Price/Earnings Growth.  They’re willing to put up with a higher P/E in the cases where the growth of earnings remains fast.  If they see a slow-down in either metric, they might change their evaluation.

When all is said and done, it’s up to the individual investor to decide what valuation metrics to use and how to use them.  Only you can determine if a stock is overvalued in your trading system.

 

Facebook’s planned IPO is going to be big, make no mistake about that.  But not everyone is sold on the prospects for the company.  Around the web, pundits are weighing in with their opinion of how Facebook will do as a publicly traded company.  Nat Worden of The Street, is not buying.  He outlines an argumentthat although Facebook is profitable, he doesn’t trust growth prospects for online ad spending.

Facebook Ready To Cash In On Your Personal Data

Facebook Ready To Cash In On Your Personal Data

In a nutshell, Worden thinks that Facebook is going to be hugely overvalued at a rumored IPO value of $100 billion.  It will be the richest IPO in the history of tech, which has seen its share of stumbles among former glory-holders.  Facebook is extremely popular right now, but could go the way of MySpace goes the argument.

Wall Street Daily was not sold on the Facebook IPO either, outlining three reasons people should stay away.  As the point out, social media stocks are not setting the world on fire, with over 80% of the social media companies that did an IPO last year already trading for less than they did on their opening day! That’s definitely a troubling stat for anyone considering putting their cash into Facebook.

Still, no one can deny just how much excitement exists for a company like Facebook to go public.  With such a huge user-base, it seems likely lots of average investors will be piling into this one.  There will be a lot of interest so Facebook is going to be at center stage this year.  I’m sure there will be many positive reactions about the IPO in the next few days.

Do you plan on getting in on this IPO?

 

Citigroup Inc reported a dismal fourth quarter, that saw revenues decline by 6% at the banking behemoth. The problems for the company should be familiar ones for shareholders.  There weren’t a lot of bright spots in the report. The company also said its securities and banking revenue fell 29% for the same period.

Citigroup Trumpets Results On Their Website

Citigroup Trumpets Results On Their Website

Reaction the news has been relatively muted.  Share prices have already declined steeply in pre-market trading.  Whether this condition will worsen as the day goes on remains to be seen, although it seems likely. As the saying goes, some of ‘the bad news is already priced in.’  Citigroup has been ensconced in a multi-year turnaround that has not gotten much of a break from the overall economy.  The company has improved on its’ bad loan numbers, but revenues remain under serious pressure for the global banking company.

Net income for “C” was 38 cents a share, which was way off from the 49 cents that analysts predicted.  No matter how you slice it, this was not an earnings report that could have been pleasant to hear for most Citigroup bulls.  We might just see a flurry of analyst downgrades and selling once people begin to react to the news.

This could be a tough day for Citigroup longs.

What is your take on Citigroup as an investment?

P.S.  I included a screenshot of Citigroup’s home page.  I thought it was interesting how upbeat their take on the quarter was compared to everyone else :)

 

If you have a pulse, you’ve probably heard of Facebook.  If you follow investing at all, you might even be aware that the company has been rumored to be doing an IPO for quite some time. That has speculators very excited, because public interest in the stock of a publicly traded Facebook is likely to be extremely high.

Google Is Ready To Take On A Public Facebook

Google Is Ready To Take On A Public Facebook

According to Kara Swisher @ AllthingsD, the IPO has been confirmed by multiple sources for May. If the rumors are true, Facebook will have to file papers with the SEC within a month. After that, the IPO could happen.  This could be the type of news that Wall Street wants to hear, because public interest in a big IPO can help push money back into the market.

But the question remains: are YOU going to invest in Facebook?

Are You Ready To Invest In Facebook?

The average investor, if such a beast exists, could have a number of reservations about pumping investment dollars into Facebook.  Sure, the company has huge growth potential, but they also face stiff competition and increased public scrutiny.  Costs will be going up dramatically at the company after an IPO and they’ll have to continuously look for new revenues.  This is true of any Internet company, and especially true for Facebook.

Plus, there’s Google+, the new 900 pound Gorilla of social networking.  Google is pushing Google+ very hard now, with the direct aim of breaking the back of Facebook, according to critics.  Google is a lot bigger than Facebook right now, and is dug in for the fight.  Can Facebook fight back with a fresh stack of investor cash?

What’s your opinion?  Do you plan on investing Facebook?

With a new year upon us, Ford Motor Co (NYSE:F) recently claimed they are the number one car brand in the USA.  This statement didn’t sit well with their long-time rival General Motors. GM said Ford was number for ‘passenger cars.’ Ford said they sold 2.1 million cars in 2011, which was their best year since 2007.

The USA was not the only market where there was positive news from Ford and General Motors.  Both car companies said they had record years in China.  GM sold over 2.5 million cars in China, while Ford weighed in with sales of over 500,000.  GM gained 8% year over year while Ford went up 7%.

GM attributed a good portion of their success to having a varied product line.  They said they released 12 new models in China in 2011.  They also invested heavily in manufacturing capacity, to capitalize on increased demand.

Ford also announced they’re planning on investing in research in Silicon Valley.  They’re opening their first ever research lab in the area in order to find ways the valley’s famed technology can help their business grow in 2012 and beyond.

Ford, which does not wish to be done by General Motors, said they will introduce 15 new models to China this year.  Ford also said they’re adding to capacity, expecting to add a total of four new production plans in 2012.

This question has been getting repeated a lot since 2007. From where we sit in December 2012, it would only require a 15% gain to reach Dow 14,000. This assumes that a reversal of fortune is not going to happen. 14,000 is considered to be a ‘psychological hurdle.’ The last time the market hit 14,000, it crashed shortly after. This lead some analysts to conclude that the 14,000 barrier will remain a key point in any recovery.

Dow Jones 14,000

Will The Dow Jones Hit 14,000

It’s tough to go out on a limb and predict the future, but it does seem likely that Dow 14,000 will be achieved in a reasonable time span. Despite gloomy economic news, the Dow has remained relatively stable and continues to grow.

One thing seems likely, in order for the Dow 14,000 barrier to be crashed, it will require the retiring of the bear by skittish institutional investors. A lot is made out of all the ‘little guys‘ in the market but it will take a move by the big boys to push the overall market higher. Institutional investors hold a large concentration of wealth. Money is concentrated also in the hands of options traders.  In the current stock market, it has paid for people to remain defensive rather than getting too aggressive.  That moderate behavior has helped stop people from losing money, but it hardly helps push the overall market to new heights.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average will likely pierce the 14,000 mark when the economy has rebounded, people are optimistic about their country and economy, and investments in the stock market look like a great idea who’s time has arrived again.

What do you think? Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 14,000 or will Financial Armageddon stop it from happening? Sound off below.

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) is stimulating demand for the entire PC industry through its price cuts. Intel price cuts are stimulating demand said UBS recently.

UBS’s Asian distributor channel checks indicate PC demand has rebounded 20-50% month-over-month, aided by Intel price cuts. The analyst believes their Q4 Intel flat sales estimate could have upside. Shares are Neutral rated with a $19.50 price target.

In related news, Intel will receive a grant to expand Kiryat Gat fab, Globes reported.

Intel will reportedly receive a grant of NIS678M by Israel’s Ministries of Industry, Trade, Labor and Finance to expand its Kiryat Gat fab. Globes reports that the grand will be spread over eight years and Intel will hire hundreds of new employees at the expanded fab plant.

The French court has slashed eBay, Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) fines in counterfeit suit, Bloomberg said today.

EBay will be forced to pay less in a suit over sales of counterfeit goods because of the latest ruling from a French appeals court in its fight with LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA (PINK:LVMUY).

The French court went ahead and reduced the fines for eBay to EUR5.6 million from almost EUR40 million, but declined to give a reason for the decision.

eBay, as the world’s largest online auction marketplace, has been accused by several companies of harboring counterfeiters.

Standard & Poors may raise its ratings on Motorola, Inc. (NYSE:MOT) said Reuters.

Motorola’s ratings may be raised by Standard & Poor’s to investment grade from its current BB-plus rating.

S&P cites the company’s potential to reduce debt and improving liquidity for the potential upgrade.

In all, Motorola is expected to invest $3.5 billion in the phone and set-top box units it plans to spin off next year.

Carl Icahn increased his buying of Motorola stock this week. He purchased $86.2 million of stock this week, giving him a 10.6% stake in the company.

Sony Corporation (NYSE:SNE) today announced new plans for a digital music service that will run from the cloud.

The service, known as “Music Unlimited powered by Qriocity,” will be available by year end.

“Music Unlimited powered by Qriocity” will give music lovers access to millions of songs stored and synchronized through the cloud.

“Music Unlimited powered by Qriocity” will initially be available across Sony’s 2010 models of network-enabled BRAVIA TVs, Blu-ray Disc players, Blu-ray Home Theater systems, as well as PlayStation 3 computer entertainment systems and VAIOs and other personal computers, and will become increasingly available on a range of Sony’s portable devices.