Is the personal computer boom over? Dell slumps

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Dell is slumping as PC sales seem to be tanking. I’m not sure this trend is reversible. Every day I see more and more units of devices like UMPCs and SmartPhones moving out to the masses, and I wonder: “will people really want to chain themselves down to their PC every day?”. I don’t think so. I especially think kids are being weened off desktops.

“Our take is that Dell’s miss is largely about Dell, although it does add yet another reaffirmation about the state of the commercial PC market, mostly in desktops,” wrote Goldman Sachs analyst Laura Conigliaro in a note to investors Friday morning. Goldman makes a market in Dell securities and has provided investment banking and noninvestment banking services to Dell within the past 12 months.

Dell is faring more poorly than HP, but AMD and INTC both turned in mediocre numbers. I’m a lot more comfortable with Nokia and Motorola than I am with any company in the PC segment.

The war is far from over, of course, but if handhelds continue to take off, the former PC heavyweights will have to get even more involved in diversified consumer electronics, which may hurt their returns. One more trend to keep an eye on.

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