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July 28 rally

Harry said: "[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=augZCmpxbk3c&refer=stocks[/url] [i]A government report on July 28 will probably show that growth in the U.S. economy decelerated in the second quarter. [/i] I believe people will perceive this as an excuse for the FED not to increase rates at the next session and that this report will create a HUGE rally (continue to rally). Opinions?"

Rickster said: "Sounds plausible. Interest rates are at the top of their long term channel and appear to be rolling over. One scenario that I have been speculating on is a break out and run up led by shunned big tech stocks. The DJI hits a new high and the Naz hits 3000 (60% retracement). The all clear is announced, the public comes back in to buy the top, and down we go. Or things could go sideways or down."

thezster said: "[QUOTE=Harry][url]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=augZCmpxbk3c&refer=stocks[/url] [i]A government report on July 28 will probably show that growth in the U.S. economy decelerated in the second quarter. [/i] I believe people will perceive this as an excuse for the FED not to increase rates at the next session and that this report will create a HUGE rally (continue to rally). Opinions?[/QUOTE] As someone holding tons of building supply stocks - I would hope you're right.... But - my crystal ball broke a long time ago.... and I can't afford to have it repaired. I'm not sure that report will have the "huge" rally you expect. That one will come when the fed actually announced "no interest rate hike this time around". I actually hope (in a sideways fashion) that there is one more hike. Only because I'm buying a house next week and don't want to have to admit that I bought in at the 5 year high of interest rates (though I did pick it up for $124K under the original asking price).... My last home loan was 2 7/8ths... this one is 6.375.... :("

Lagg-Alot said: "[QUOTE=Harry][url]http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=augZCmpxbk3c&refer=stocks[/url] [i]A government report on July 28 will probably show that growth in the U.S. economy decelerated in the second quarter. [/i] I believe people will perceive this as an excuse for the FED not to increase rates at the next session and that this report will create a HUGE rally (continue to rally). Opinions?[/QUOTE] Or people may perceive that the economy has slowed to much and we are heading into a Recession."

Harry said: "[QUOTE=thezster] I'm not sure that report will have the "huge" rally you expect. That one will come when the fed actually announced "no interest rate hike this time around". I actually hope (in a sideways fashion) that there is one more hike. Only because I'm buying a house next week and don't want to have to admit that I bought in at the 5 year high of interest rates (though I did pick it up for $124K under the original asking price).... My last home loan was 2 7/8ths... this one is 6.375.... :([/QUOTE] This is like sticking my finger in the air and feeling the breeze. If data shows that economy decelerated, this will be one of many scraps leading up to the next FED meeting. If there are enough scaps of data in coming weeks to reinforce the the economy is indeed in decline, then a positive rally may build-in causing minimal reaction if the FED does temporarily halt interest rate increases. But ya gotta wonder if such market enthusiasm will display resilence and encourage another hike anyway? Each level seems to manifest a little different. BTW...new housing starts number released tommorrow also. (another scrap) Yeah CPI is the culprit but I think we're nearing the point where the data really coagulates. Hey 6.375 ain't terrible...it's not what we're used to but it ain't in the crap zone yet. At least that interest is deductible."

BenHouston said: "What do you think oil and natural gas (well more oil) on the 28th? I just bought in to an income trust up here in Canada with vast amounts of oil and natural gas."

Rickster said: "[QUOTE=thezster] I actually hope (in a sideways fashion) that there is one more hike. Only because I'm buying a house next week and don't want to have to admit that I bought in at the 5 year high of interest rates (though I did pick it up for $124K under the original asking price).... My last home loan was 2 7/8ths... this one is 6.375.... :([/QUOTE] I think it is smart to buy houses when interest rates are high and houses are discounted accordingly. You can always refinance, but you cant always get a discounted price. I like your instincts."

GQ_Model said: "I'm hoping you are right about the rally Harry. The markets have been rather crappy as of the past few months... hopefully things are back on track and stay that way... but who knows"

j4wz said: "[QUOTE=Rickster]I think it is smart to buy houses when interest rates are high and houses are discounted accordingly. You can always refinance, but you cant always get a discounted price. I like your instincts.[/QUOTE] Exactly! I am in the same boat as thezster. I have been looking at houses for months but with the interest rates rising, I plan to stick it out. :D"

SporeMonger said: "[QUOTE=Lagg-Alot]Or people may perceive that the economy has slowed to much and we are heading into a Recession.[/QUOTE] Is it really possible to go from an inflation, right into a recession? :eek:"

Harry said: "[QUOTE=SporeMonger]Is it really possible to go from an inflation, right into a recession? :eek:[/QUOTE] It's absolutely possible. They try for the "soft" landing and worry about the "hard" landing (Recession). While some data suggest a slowdown, ya gotta wonder when enough is enough to curtail the inflationary pressures. Of course I'm wrong half the time but I like to try to frame out events. This economy seems very resilent which hints "interest rate hike to me". But we've seen weird and varying reactions to the data that come out."

RupertB said: "There is a good chance that buyers will latch on to that news and create a rally today one that possibly stretches into early next week. However, I liken it to the recent rally that was spurred by buyers who siezed on Bernanke's comments on "moderating growth" & ignored his previous statements about making rate-hike decisions based on the most current data available. I forsee a lot of those buyers crying about how BB "deceived" them with his dovish statements on "moderating growth" & then raising the discount rate when the later (if the numbers support it). Given the uncertainties, I'm sticking to value & a long view."

thezster said: "U.S. stock futures gain as weak GDP provides hope for Fed pause Marketwatch - July 28, 2006 8:49 AM ET LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock market futures leaned higher Friday as slower-than-expected economic growth provided hopes that the Federal Reserve would stop raising interest rates, offsetting concerns over a greater-than-expected jump in labor costs and the fastest pace of consumer price increases in 12 years."

bearNbull said: "I have this feeling that HD, LOW, YHOO AND RCL will hit their 52 week highs today:D :D"

thezster said: "[QUOTE=bearNbull]I have this feeling that HD, LOW, YHOO AND RCL will hit their 52 week highs today:D :D[/QUOTE] I like your optimism... but don't share it quite to that extent... That would require a $10.00+ jump for each.... We should do Okay... but not great!!"

Harry said: "[QUOTE=bearNbull]I have this feeling that HD, LOW, YHOO AND RCL will hit their 52 week highs today:D :D[/QUOTE] Can we stay of topic please. Today worked out...now to defeat next week which looks to be flat as earning announement's end. Monday: Contruction Spending Wednesday: EIA Petrolium status, Natural Gas Thurday: Factory orders, Wednesday: EIA Petrolium status, Natural Gas"

thezster said: "Today's rally was nice - but not spectacular. I went ahead and dumped just under 1000 shares of my home improvement stocks for some profit taking - missing the high of the day - but expecting the first part of next week to be flat/slightly down - offering me a chance to buy back in..."

AlfredSokol said: "No point in hanging around for the weekend if you made profit already. Congrats."

Harry said: "Is it me or is everybody too cozy with the idea that the FED won't raise rates. My judgement is neutral. I want more data...and hints to where the next CPI will land. How progressive is this slowdown?"