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thezster said: "That bullish feeling that's been creeping around my spine seems to be materializing. Everything I've bought lately seems to be creeping upwards without pause.
Now it's time to make a buck or two - assuming my premonition is correct. I do best in a bull market - buying on the dips and selling on the rises.... and that's all I'm seeing lately. Hopefully the third quarter ends up profitable for everyone!! With gasoline declining - interest rate hikes on hold - and Christmas coming up (the old Santa Clause Effect) - speculator/investor sentiment is going to lean towards a lot of consumer spending leading up to December 25th - which should bode well for the retail sector. Granted, gasoline prices have been declining for a much shorter period than they were rising - but the news reports seem to be telling consumers - go ahead and buy ----------- gas isn't going to hurt you any more..... (idiotic news reporters)"
Darren said: "Is the hair on your arms rising? LOL :)"
Rickster said: "I feel it too. My indicators still point up. As I mentioned in the past, I am convinced the market goes in the direction that causes the most pain. Bull markets cause two kinds of pain.
The first is obvious: The pain of shorts being squeezed into buying.
The second is often overlooked: The pain of being left behind.
I think the market is primed for both. The vast majority of people I know are either still afraid of the market or are disenchanted with the current state of affairs. The ones who are willing to sell have sold. A lot of pain would be created if the market were to go up sharply.
I know 2 people other than myself that are feeling bullish. One of them is Z. The other is a coworker, and he is having cold feet."
thezster said: "I know what you mean - feeling the race started without you and you're stuck in the gate. I don't worry about it though. I'm currently heavy, heavy in cash - having made a nice profit over the past couple of days when things were crashing and burning, it seems, for others... My mindset now is to pick up a couple of medium term opportunities and try to hold onto them... and continue playing the ups n downs of everything else.... I love bull markets after they leave the gate - it makes buying on the minor downswings almost downright easy....."
Rickster said: "Uh huh. How many times have we had to say "dont chase." People just cant resist.
A study was once conducted to find out why so many people fell for the Ponzi scheme. The obvious premise going in was that the suckers were greedy. But the researchers discovered that the main driver was the fear of being left out. Ponzi built his sucker base through word of mouth. A guy would find out that Ponzi had made his neighbor rich (or so he thought) and couldn't stand to see his neighbor getting ahead of him. So he rushed in to give good ol Ponzi his money too. Human nature never changes.
But I understand the way you play means swinging from no cash to all cash in a blink. And you can make money in any market, but it is a lot easier when the bull is in charge.:)"
dumaman said: ":confused: i think were gona have a major down swing in the market, from what i can see and have heard is the market is serverly overbought! the nasdaq is lagging behind the dow.. not a good sign i think.."
Rickster said: "Thats the kind of thinking I am counting on. :)"
thezster said: "[QUOTE=dumaman]:confused: i think were gona have a major down swing in the market, from what i can see and have heard is the market is serverly overbought! the nasdaq is lagging behind the dow.. not a good sign i think..[/QUOTE]
Severely overbought?? Says who? Companies that have, for the past 12 - 24 months, carried P/E's in the mid to high 20's are now selling in the low teens (P/E's). Everywhere I look equities are at, or close to, their 52 week lows...... Interest rates have been "on hold" for two months in a row..... energy costs are down 30% as we approach the holiday season...... Technology, which has been everyone's "whipping boy" is now in favor - and even the staid blue chips are getting decent press. My God, dude, even Ford has had a resurgence (go figure). The airlines just announced general profits with a "plus" sign in front of the numbers for the first time in God knows how long....
I think, personally, and it ain't worth shi _ , that the major downswing... so to speak, is about a month or so behind us....... Investors are just dying to put their money back into the market - they just need a reason to be convinced. Hopefully (notice how I continue to qualify things), I'll have my money in prior to them having theirs in..... that way I can take some of theirs on the way up......
Conversely - should we have a major downswing.... Lord knows I'm ready for it... being about 70% in cash right now...."
dumaman said: "my info was off from a radio show, and cnbc i duno lol.. trying too blend in here:D"
thezster said: "Hmmm... would that be the same CNBC that predicted $4.00 gasoline by October? Just cause it makes the news... don't make it so...."
Rickster said: "Fade the news media."
Paq13 said: "heh..i LOVE a bull market...LOVE it...LOOOVE it...LOVE it
hoping for the best over here...
oh wait..if it moves in teh way that would cause the most pain..ARRR, NOT A BULL MARKET..>HEAVEN FORBID!!!!
:)"
thezster said: "I don't know about your picks - but everything I've got (which isn't much) is doing great! In fact, I'm tempted to get back in the game at the higher prices than I'm used to - cause I feel stronger than ever that the bull is pawing at the gate. Looks like the Santa Clause Rally is starting early. (which reminds me - it's time to start looking at seasonal performers that rely on Christmas) :)"
Darren said: "Enthusiasm is contagious. But it only takes one false move to send everyone scurrying for the gates again."
RupertB said: ""The waiting is the hardest part" - T. Petty :cool:"