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Home >> Stock Forums >> Today's volatility....SPY

Today's volatility....SPY


holzie said: "Very scarry indeed today. Days like today is a great example why trade spreads very conservatively. I guarantee you that a lot of hasty spread traders got hurt today on the SPY and SPX....I will be in trouble if SPY approaches 144.30 mark or 136 on the bottom side. I am hoping for a steady pull backand a trading range 1400-1420 :) Holz."

drdan said: "You are going to be close Holz! I have MACD and Stoch both showing upward momentum and a resistance level of just about 144.50 from my analysis. I'd hang in there, does your spread expire tomorrow?"

holzie said: "[QUOTE=drdan]You are going to be close Holz! I have MACD and Stoch both showing upward momentum and a resistance level of just about 144.50 from my analysis. I'd hang in there, does your spread expire tomorrow?[/QUOTE] Nope...Jan 07. I am closing the upper leg if SPY crosses $144... I still will be left with the profitable bottom leg...so it would probably be a break even scenario. We'll see. Theta decay will pick up next week...I just need that puppy to hang under $144 to be on the safe side. :)"

holzie said: "I am showing Slow Stoch at overbought levels...looking like crossing again at 90? There will be a pull back, I almost guarantee ya."

drdan said: "[QUOTE=holzie]I am showing Slow Stoch at overbought levels...looking like crossing again at 90? There will be a pull back, I almost guarantee ya.[/QUOTE] For Slow Stoch I am using 5/5 and so I am not seeing the bounce yet. I have the fast %K hitting 100 right now and the Slow %D just crossing 80 on the upswing, so for tomorrow I we will probably see the Fast %K bounce down and the Slow %D hit the 90 mark and make the turn on Monday. So I see the crossing happening tomorrow. Is this what you are seeing? What are you using for Slow Stoch? I would guess a minor upday or sideways trading tomorrow and then the pull back next week. But tomorrow if there is another upday your are looking at hitting 144, so i think it will be close."

holzie said: "I am using 15, 5 and a 1 month chart. I am showing K 90 and D 86 at today's close. As I said, I see it as overbought but I could be wrong. Bottom line, the market showed a lot of exuberance in the open and early morning but I knew it would fade by the afternoon..but pullback didn't come..and I was expecting a pull back, meaning my analysis has some holes in it, and that's not good. Bottom line my IC with January expiration actually made money today, despite the unwelcomed volatility driving the prices of calls upwards. Volatility is what kills ya in the end :) My position's theta went from 2.7 to 1.7. But if you think about it, the market was driven by a few companies today..GE and Honeywell....there were actually more declines than advances....to sum it up, it indicates an overbought market on a short-term basis. The SPX settlement price was under 1430 as well. So I feel pretty good about the market staying approximately where it is at. Next week could be different though. Holz."

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