Aapl Jan 90 Calls

lb19984 said: "10% of my portfoli invested adding another10% on TUESDAY AHHH WISH ME LUCK"

Rbreb13 said: "I'd wait and see how the market reacts. More bad news. You'll also have to wait until Wednesday, the markets are closed Tuesday. [url]http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061230/apple_lawsuits.html?.v=1[/url]"

holzie said: "[QUOTE=lb19984]10% of my portfoli invested adding another10% on TUESDAY AHHH WISH ME LUCK[/QUOTE] I am wishing you luck. You are aware that this is an OTM call with theta -9.64. This means that over the period markets are closed, your calls will loose roughly 4*$10 just in time decay. Not to mention the potential drop in implied volatility, which is always the real enemy for straight call/put buyers. I looked at the risk graph and AAPL JAN07 90 calls have a 27% chance of trading above $90 between now and expiration, so you will have to make your money in the potential runup, if there is going to be one. I wouldn't buy the second 10% lot of the calls. If you bought your first lot nicely when Apple was low, just create a trailing stop so that you won't give much of your profits back and if there is a further runup, you catch that too. How is everyone else feeling about this one? This is just my insignificant opnion, and must make your own decision, of course. Holzie."

JCast3 said: "these are the calls that i started buying like 2 weeks ago, when apple started to drop initially....the plan was to make a quick buck in a day or two....well it kept dropping so i kept doubling up....i ended up with 40 contracts, and was able to sell 15 for a little profit.... then i hit a landmine on wednesday when it dumped like 5 points in the morning, so i doubled down on my remaining 25 contracts....only reason i doubled down again is cause i had this gut feeling that the options backdating stuff was a lot of sensationalized media propaganda....so going into friday i was holding 50 contracts @ about ~1.10....i got rid of 35 contracts yesterday and im leaving the last 15 on the table for next week to see if i can squeeze out a little more money...."

holzie said: "Here man, here is the risk graph of YOUR position: [IMG]http://linuxgaming.us/images/AAPL-JAN07-CALLS.png[/IMG] The white line is you right now and the green line is you at expiration. This assumes volatility stays the same (not decrease), otherwise your white line is going to slide down and to the right, meaning harder to make money. So this is a hard game and the risk of loosing is pretty high. The game is stacked against you. Now look, what a punk like me will do to you. Hypothetically, if I was interested in playing AAPL and hopefuls like you, I would do a credit spread like this: SELL -1 AAPL JAN07 95 CALL BUY +1 AAPL JAN07 100 CALL ------------------------------ CREDIT $55.00 CAPITAL USED/MAX.RISK $445 [IMG]http://linuxgaming.us/images/AAPL-JAN07-verticalspread.png[/IMG] If you look at the 1 std deviation range, it is 78.07-92.02. I am selling somebody like you a call 3 full points above 1 std deviation (68% chance). The TOS software tells me that there is a 8.15% chance that AAPL will touch $95 between now and Jan 20th. So, I have a 100-8.15= 91.85% chance of making my full $55 right from the start. If I take in the ability to adjust my position anytime, I am pretty much sitting at 99.9%. The return would be 12.36% over 22 days. However, I wouldn't consider doing anything with AAPL because the stock is not "boring" enough to put my real money on it. See this puppy is really suited for traders like you, who need wild swings to make money on their calls and puts. I need indexes like SPX, NDX, RUT or stocks like GE or IBM to sleep at night :) I hope this helped. Let me know if you have any questions. Holzie."

holzie said: "[QUOTE=JCast3]these are the calls that i started buying like 2 weeks ago, when apple started to drop initially....the plan was to make a quick buck in a day or two....well it kept dropping so i kept doubling up....i ended up with 40 contracts, and was able to sell 15 for a little profit.... then i hit a landmine on wednesday when it dumped like 5 points in the morning, so i doubled down on my remaining 25 contracts....only reason i doubled down again is cause i had this gut feeling that the options backdating stuff was a lot of sensationalized media propaganda....so going into friday i was holding 50 contracts @ about ~1.10....i got rid of 35 contracts yesterday and im leaving the last 15 on the table for next week to see if i can squeeze out a little more money....[/QUOTE] Now that requires some serious nerve and capital. I don't think I could hold my food down while being in game like this :)"

drdan said: "This is funny. The game on investopedia I am playing is all speculation since all I can do is buy straight puts and calls. I bought AAPL JAN 85 calls. I would never do this in real life unless of course I could watch the markets every hour. In real life I would be playing the trade Holzie mapped out. I just find it very interesting that everyone thinks alike. On speculation I am all in for the calls you have, my more conservative side says play the credit spread and use $95 as a resistance. What I see as resistance right now is - the 30d ema it closed below it on Friday so it will be difficult to watch if it can't break this one. Otherwise I see $93 as the upper resistance level. So good luck on your position it is definitely a gamble, which is why I played it in the game vs real life. If I win I will win big, if not I do not lose any real money and the position is only 5% of my total account in the game. (see even in the game I can not go all balls out! Darn my conservative behavior)"

JCast3 said: "[QUOTE=holzie]Now that requires some serious nerve and capital. I don't think I could hold my food down while being in game like this :)[/QUOTE] lol, i wasnt talking about a game, that was real life!!!....im not sure what you mean by serious capital, but i can assure you i dont have that much :( ....however i do have a lot of nerve, lol....i dont straight up buy calls very often, only when i feel a good opportunity presents itself....and at the time i got involved ~2 weeks ago, opportunity was great....stock was down 10%+ on zero news, all i needed was a nice positive day and i woulda made a few bucks....just so happened it kept sliding, so i had to keep buying....i finally got my one positive day and took 75% of my original investment off the table....leaving mostly profit in play then the "real news" hit which gave me another opportunity to make even more money (i knew the news was BS and even if it wasnt, it was already priced in, at least most of it)....again i just needed one half way decent positive day and i'd be set for a nice gain....just so happened that the positive day was an extrememly positive day (yesterday)....crack of the bat, homerun....all thats left on the table is a little bit of profit.... as long as apple doesnt tank next week, this will be my first upper deck job....im usually too chicken shit to hang around this long, either i cut my losses quick or take all the profit at once...."

lb19984 said: "ive actually had aapl calls for a few months now.... got them at 82... whenever it was trading at 82? a month or 2 ago... still in those... got more 90 calls at .55 and .70 then at 1.07 and 2.07 and after doing some calculating its around 6-7% and im gonna add a bit more till im at about 11-13% of my portfolio up about 20% at the moment... but with the runup to macworld... om expecting another 10 point run up i will get rid of 4/5ths of my position on dec 8th so i am not planing to hold until they expire.. then i will do another play on earnings a on the 23d i think... i also have april 100, 105 calls AND I HAVE 25 free options trades till the end of january soooo i think i might just add some 110 jan uarys or something silly like that at .15 a contract and keep my fingers crossed :-D anyways good luck to everyone"

JCast3 said: "and im out....closed out my last 15 contracts this morning....woohoo, nice start to the new year! :)"

lb19984 said: "how much are you up? % wise... at what price did u get in? thanks"

JCast3 said: "[QUOTE=lb19984]how much are you up? % wise... at what price did u get in? thanks[/QUOTE] i pulled everything out for a total gain of ~130%....i averaged myself in @ ~1.10, sold out at 2.55"

lb19984 said: "could have made alot more told everyone not to get out :-D"

JCast3 said: "[QUOTE=lb19984]could have made alot more told everyone not to get out :-D[/QUOTE] couldve lost everything i made too....130% is fine by me...."

JCast3 said: "if you're still holding them, you are cleaning house :th_dblthumb2:"

JohnL said: "He is. Little fucker. :) Congratulations man."

nicholasbellono said: "Great move JCast. Investing doesn't always have to be complicated. Everyone who watched the news knew about the IPhone but only those with the guts to take the risk made money on it. Watch the option again early this week. Friday would have been a great time but the prices should stay down for a little while. It pays off to take risk sometimes, but of course with knowledge of what you are getting yourself into. Great job again and good luck in the future."

JCast3 said: "[QUOTE=lb19984]could have made alot more told everyone not to get out :-D[/QUOTE] i really hope you sold those calls....????"