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Dr. Evil's Discount BiotechsDr. Evil's Discount Biotechs
Cryogenix said: "Below, are a handful of low-priced pharmaceutical companies whose stocks I feel have great potential and a good ROR ratio. I’ve arranged them starting with ones I believe offer the best return with the least amount of risk. As for the treatments or products they’re developing or offering, I’ll leave that to you to research.
I’m not encouraging anyone to jump in blindly and buy anything mentioned within this post. These are my personal opinions and breakdowns based on my trading of these securities and my view of their charts. Stocks of this type are typically very volatile and highly sensitive to news, meaning on good news they soar and bad news they fall hard.
Please be sure to perform your own due diligence before entering any position. These are meant as mid-to-longterm plays (some upwards of 5 years), not day/swing trades (unless news suddenly hits and such opportunities arise).
As for deciding on an entry point, that’s up to you. Some traders pick a price and wait for it, while I generally wait for a strong movement on the chart that falls within my price range. Doing so increases my odds of being up on the stock from the start, rather than hoping my set buy-in price is actually the bottom.
Just as with life, the stock market has its ups and down and is unpredictable. At any given moment, something could happen to send a stock or the whole market crashing down. My conclusions of support levels, typical trading ranges and chart direction are derived with the impression the market will continue its upward trend. Most of my figures are approximates and not 100% accurate. In the end, being off a week or a few pennies to indicate high/low spreads isn’t going to make a difference.
Happy investing.
[url=http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=acad]ACAD[/url] – Last: 13.70
Price targets: Low: 17.00 - Mean: 20.85 - High: 25.00
Current analyst mean: 1.7 (buy-strong buy)
Upgrades (July 10): Initiated to Outperform
Projected support: Long: 12.80 - Short: 13.20
Chart status: appx: $6.00 above a 5-month low - $1.20 below a 5-week high
Chart direction: 5.5-month downtrend, 5-week downtrend off 2.50 rise, favoring climb
Latest news (Jul 10): an analyst predicts success for Schizophrenia drug
Suggestion: consider taking a 50% position
Observations: the stock feels safe floating above $12 in mildly choppy waters.
Concerns: it’s way up there and the slightest bad news will topple it hard and fast.
Opinion: this latest upgrade should give it extra support at this level.
[url=http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=snts]SNTS[/url] [url=http://www.superiorinvestor.net/thread5637.html]My thread[/url] – Last: 5.56
Price targets: Low: 6.00 - Mean: 8.14 - High: 10.00
Current analyst mean: 2.1 (buy)
Upgrades (Jul 3): Negative to Neutral
Projected support: Long: 5.10 - Short: 5.50
Chart status: appx: $.45 above a 4-month low - $2.10 below a 2.5-month high
Chart direction: 7-week downtrend, 2-week uptrend off 5.00 bounce, favoring climb
Suggestion: consider taking a 70% position
Observation: stock had been well above $5 since Aug ‘06
Opinion: stock will remain above 5.30 until news breaks
Side note: I was in heavy at 5.18, expecting a big move, and trimmed my investment by 70%, due to inactivity and being heavy in other pharmas. I’ll continue to watch it and wait for breaking news.
[url=http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cege]CEGE[/url] – Last: 3.65
Price targets: Low: 3.00 - Mean: 7.40 - High: 12.00
Current analyst mean: 2.3 (buy-hold)
Projected support: Long: 3.46 - Short: 3.34
Chart status: appx: $.80 above a 4-month low - $4.00 below a 4-month high
Chart direction: 4-month downtrend, 10-day uptrend, favoring flat-to-climb
Latest news (Jul 12): enrollment of subjects for late-stage trial GVAX drug completed; DNDN recently had setbacks that should benefit CEGE
Suggestion: consider taking a 50% position
Opinion: stock will remain above 3.40 until news breaks
[url=http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=lxrx]LXRX[/url] – Last: 3.36
Price targets: Low: 6.00 - Mean: 10.50 - High: 24.00
Current analyst mean: 1.5 (buy-strong buy)
Projected support: Long: 3.26 - Short: 3.17
Chart status: appx: $.30 above a 3-week low - $1.10 below a 5-month high
Chart direction: uptrend with 20-day channel, favoring a climb
Latest news (Jul 3): preclinical research shows drugs developed antibodies that quickly lowered the cholesterol and triglyceride readings of mice
Suggestion: consider taking a 50% position
Opinion: stock will remain above 3.17 until news breaks
[url=http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=nvax]NVAX[/url] – Last: 3.07
Price targets: Low: 3.00 - Mean: 6.50 - High: 10.00
Current analyst mean: 2.3 (buy-hold)
Projected support: Long: 2.75 - Short: 2.98
Chart status: appx: $.45 above a 4-month low - $4.00 below a 5-month high
Chart direction: 4-month uptrend, 4-week channel, favoring climb
Latest news (Jul 10): licensing Wyeth's virus-like particle technology
Suggestion: consider taking a 30% position
Observation: stock seems stable trading from 3.00 to 3.12
Opinion: stock will remain above 2.85 until news breaks.
[url=http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=crtx]CRTX[/url] – Last: 2.15
Price targets: Low: 2.50 - Mean: 2.50 - High: 2.50
Current analyst mean: 2.0 (buy)
Projected support: Long: 1.60 - Short: 2.20
Chart status: appx: $.65 above a 6-month low - $4.00 below a 4-month high
Chart direction: 5-week downtrend, 4-week flat rise, favoring decline
Latest news (Jul 10): enrollment of first patient in its Phase IV clinical study of Zyflo
Suggestion: wait for chart to establish a clear uptrend
Observation: on positive news, stock shot up to 4.36 in pre-market but fell at the bell
Opinion: stock will remain above $2.05 until news breaks
[url=http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cryo]CRYO[/url] – Last: 4.57
Price targets: Low: 4.00 - Mean: 4.00 - High: 4.00
Current analyst mean: 3.0 (hold)
Projected support: Long: 4.20 - Short: 4.45
Chart status: appx: $2.00 above a 3-week low - $2.75 below a 5-month high
Chart direction: 4-month uptrend, 4-week channel, favoring climb
Pending news: expects FDA approval of PMA in August
Suggestion: hold off taking a position in case market declines while waiting
Observation: major drop-off in volume
Opinion: stock will remain above 4.40 until FDA decision."
Cryogenix said: "ACAD press release 9AM. Should give the stock an additional lift today.
[url]http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070716/20070716005256.html?.v=1[/url]"
Harry said: "Cryogenix, I know we are from different planets when investments or trading is concerned, but I can only shrug when I see all those pharmaceutical companies listed with no reference to what profitable drugs they have in their pipeline, or what new market they penetrated. :confused:"
thezster said: "[QUOTE=Harry]Cryogenix, I know we are from different planets when investments or trading is concerned, but I can only shrug when I see all those pharmaceutical companies listed with no reference to what profitable drugs they have in their pipeline, or what new market they penetrated. :confused:[/QUOTE]
Welcome to the skeptics club...."
Harry said: "If I buy a fudgesicle I want it to have fudge. :)"
Cryogenix said: "[QUOTE=Harry]...I can only shrug when I see all those pharmaceutical companies listed with no reference to what profitable drugs they have in their pipeline, or what new market they penetrated.[/QUOTE]
Harry, I had originally structured my post to include specific info on treatments and future developments, then quickly realized it wasn't as simple as jotting down a few words or even a few lines, as Biotechs are complicated. One thing supports this thing which connects to the other thing which is associated with those other things...
Rather than turn this thread into "War and Peace" - which I really had no desire to write - I chose to give just a basic snaphot of stocks I believe have tremendous potential to climb when the time is right, and won't get totally hammered into the ground on red days due to their current status (CRYO and possibly ACAD excluded).
These certainly aren't the cream of the crop of Biotechs, but I've been watching them and playing them long enough to feel comfortable with them and where they're headed. Others may not share my confidence.
Although apples and oranges, my picking of stocks such as AKS, DRYS and OIH last December proved correct, as did EWG, ACH, USU, SA and many others during Jan/Feb. These biotechs are no different; they're stocks I believe have a promising future; they're spec plays."
Harry said: "Wow, a whole forum can be devoted to these companies. The institutional investors are there...
Going down the list as far as the 4th stock, the only one with "product" was SNTS...a gastrointestinal drug.
Off Topic: As somebody who just lost 35 lbs that list of problems (aside from cancer and schiz) amazes me. An industry is making a fortune correcting people's health with pills, when a proper diet can cure 99% of most people's ills.
BTW: My exwife calls me the diet Nazi these days. :D :lecture:"
FirefighterB said: "Good call, Harry. It's amazing how band-aid like many of these medications are. If people HONESTLY took care of their bodies by exercising, eating right, and taking care of their mental health, they wouldn't need MOST medications.
These medications cause more side effects, that require more medications. Soon enough, who knows what pills are for what and what the original problem actually was. Many of these meds are the lazy way around taking care of one's own bodies.
Because, let's face it; it's easier to take a pill to fix high blood pressure/sleeping problems/depression than it is to actually address these problems by putting down the pizza/beer/cigarette and exercising or addressing the issues that are causing the problems.
While I think GOOD pharma companies can't be too bad of a bet with a large portion of our population reaching the pill-popping years, I think that, as a society, we are slowly getting to the point that we're seeing that our daily decisions are actually the cause of our ailments. While we're still too lazy to get away from taking pills to fix our problems just yet, we're at least beginning to realize that, perhaps, there are ways besides medication to feel better."
Cryogenix said: "ACAD - a lot more activity and larger buys than usual today, although nothing truly impressive. No new news.
SNTS - is still in an uptrend but starting to faulter a bit now. Support touches are getting lower. Perhaps just the effect of JNJ earnings.
CEGE - again, a lot more activity , greater volume and largest buys I've seen in awhile. It's still uptrending, but weak-heartedly so. No new news.
NVAX - just doing what it always does in this range and is still uptrending nicely.
LXRX - continues to gain a penny here and there. Still uptrending nicely and making higher support touches. No new news.
CRTX - saw a big bailout of blocks today and it dropped below my prediction of a sustained 2.05. It happened once before, about a month ago, but it turned around quickly. I'd still wait before getting into this one. Last time, it traded up as high as 2.57 in a few days. Food for thought. No guarantee it'll do it again, naturally.
CRYO - still hovering above long support, but surprisingly dropped past 4.40 and is at 4.39 in AH. Could be the result of the JNJ earnings. Have to see what tomorrow brings."
Cryogenix said: "ACAD - (13.92) - lots of positive activity the past couple of days.
SNTS - (5.30) - slightly better volume. Earnings call August 8th.
CEGE - (3.46) - saw a lot of action the past few days on great volume. No news.
NVAX - (2.92) - if the pattern repeats, it should start its reversal to 3.17. No news.
LXRX - (3.41) - much better volume and today it finally broke 3.40, which it's had trouble doing. Bigger buys in this range today and it refuses to stay below 3.30. Reports earnings July 31st.
CRTX - (2.33) - did its thing and reversed from that serious decline last week. Better volume and bigger buys the past couple of days.
CRYO - (3.90) - still hanging around on very low volume, awaiting FDA's decision next month.
CRGN - (1.65) - addition to the list purely as a potential bottom-feeding opportunity. Might have found bottom at this level.
[url]http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=crgn[/url]"
thezster said: "Are you sure you don't work for CNBC??"
Cryogenix said: "Yeah, right. These aren't penny stocks. If they were, the institutional investors wouldn't be in them so heavily. They're small caps. But I'm sure it makes "you know who" feel like a big man... :wave:
How's that 5000 of NTRI doin' for ya, Z? You're down, what?...$17 per share now? And NTRI was just downgraded this afternoon. Isn't that a shame? :laugh:"
Cryogenix said: "Check out CERS today. They release earnings after the close today.
[url]http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cers[/url]
A very good article about why it might be time to get into it...
[url]http://www.thestreet.com/p/_yahoo/rmoney/biotech/10359949.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=PREMIUM&cm_ite=003190[/url]
I wouldn't suggest getting in until after the earnings report, and then only if the news is positive."
Cryogenix said: "CERS - loss widened, so forget about that play as a climber, for now.
LXRX - loss narrowed and beat Reuter's estimates, however the 4.3M benefit from Symphony Icon I think offsets the estimate, so everything seems kind of breakeven at this point. The teleconference in 20 minutes should provide more answers for a clearer picture. Reuter's was expecting a .22 p/s loss off 12.6M, and the actual was .17 p/s loss off 12.6, then minus the 4.3 benefit. Plus revenue was way down from the same time this year, especially when you subtract the 4.3 benefit."
Cryogenix said: "Earnings article...
[url]http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070731/latu049a.html?.v=2[/url]
Decrease in R&D and supplies due to cutbacks in personnel, plus lots more cash on hand... It all looks good to me."
Darren said: "There's no reason to bump your own thread. 4 posts without a reply indicates nobody's that interested.
Things are moving that fast where you need to bump things."
Rickster said: "Thanks Darren."
Cryogenix said: "[QUOTE=Darren]There's no reason to bump your own thread. 4 posts without a reply indicates nobody's that interested.[/QUOTE]
I didn't create the parameters of this board, my friend. I can't help that keeping the stocks I mentioned here updated as much as possible (as news or developments occur) causes my thread to pop back to the top. Perhaps design the board so if the original poster posts more than three consecutive times, it doesn't get bumped to the top until a different member posts.
I wasn't planning on having anyone post in here anyway. It was intended as a read-only progress report, of sorts. I'm no longer in any of the stocks I've mentioned here (closed LXRX out of too much uncertainity) but I'll still continue to monitor and update this thread, since I did start it and there may be people who follow it, but realize it's only an info deal and therefore don't bother replying."
Darren said: "Ok. I have a solution."