JAP, excellent call on the plunge dude!

DaveinJapan said: "WOW. I sure didn't expect this to go so far, so fast. You definitely nailed the top like a pro!! :not_worthy: And, sorry I razzed you on it...classy of you not to jump in in the past few days to rub my face in it!! Holy cow, what a drop! (JAP called it just about perfectly at the top 'o the freefall!)"

lil dickie said: "Things changed a bit by the end of the day."

DaveinJapan said: "Talking more about the past week or so..."

bullofspadez said: "Of course he did, just as he started sounding bullish...there goes the market."

JAP said: "[quote=bullofspadez]Of course he did, just as he started sounding bullish...there goes the market.[/quote] Not sure what you mean, but I became bullish when the SPX hit 1370... and look at what happened. :th_coolio: Lots of short covering came in at 1370, as well as some buying. Of course the financials led the way. I missed my buying opportunity because I was busy at work :banghead: Don't get too comfortable however... it's gonna pull back and retest the lows.[quote=DaveinJapan]WOW. I sure didn't expect this to go so far, so fast. You definitely nailed the top like a pro!! :not_worthy: And, sorry I razzed you on it...classy of you not to jump in in the past few days to rub my face in it!! Holy cow, what a drop! (JAP called it just about perfectly at the top 'o the freefall!)[/quote] Thanks Dave... no worries bud. :th_salute:"

newinvestor123 said: "For you who are doubting JAP - Don't. I've been here for 8 months, and of the calls I've seen him make, 90% have worked out in his favor - unlike Cryogenix, who is completely full of shit, JAP actually knows what he is doing. (Cryo, they only proper response to this post is a screenshot of your account P/L page. Anything else falls completely short.)"

scottlarock said: "Well he was right, but if you do make a call and you stick too it, you will be right eventually (when it comes to a down/up call on the market anyways). (as much as I dislike Cryo, that is what he said today) So I searched old posts to see what JAP said since I've only been around a month. posted August 18, 2006. [url]http://www.superiorinvestor.net/thread3585.html[/url] Not only did we not see a blood bath but we saw a huge run. I've been a "bear" on the market since December (whoops!). Though I didn't sell off all positions until mid-July (around 40% of what WAS in the market, and didn't add anything to the market even though there was cash flow to add since December). If you search the message forum you'll see that I said I got out 100% when I came to this forum. Though, I think I didn't arrive until the drop had begun. Not trying to be a dick on this, just pointing out that JAP's call doesn't make him some super market guru that was a perfectly timed "high." Not that there is such a person anyways, well other than Cryo! ha ha Though Dave, nice to see you congratulate him on this anyways, since you h ad been talkin' down on his calls :respect:"

lil dickie said: "No one can be right every time. But if you are right most of the time thats half the battle."

DaveinJapan said: "And the rest is money management, right Dickie!? :whacky043:[QUOTE=scottlarock]Well he was right, but if you do make a call and you stick too it, you will be right eventually (when it comes to a down/up call on the market anyways). [/QUOTE] Well, looking back on the past 100 years or so that would be true if you call the upside, WHOLE MARKET ONLY, and depending on your entry it would only be a matter of time before you were "right". Except for those poor 1928 investors..anyone that hung on (or even survived!) wouldn't have seen an actual profit within a normal LIFESPAN... So, other than that though, yes sure, the markets do keep going up. It's when you get in and when you get out that's important. And JAP definitely did nail this correction very nicely (as much shit as I gave him for it...I really didn't think it would be so quick or so severe...live and learn). I'm not awarding the guy a crystal ball or nothin...but obviously he was looking at certain factors and called this drop with a measure of confidence... I didn't start this thread to trash talk other guys though...it was more an effort to retract some of the trash talk (wallstreetpit is so lacking in trash talk, I felt the need to retract my feelings here in the hopes that this place, too, could become "productive"...since we are all in here to make money and help each other do so right?)."

AlfredSokol said: "DaveInJapan. Why do you constantly interject commentary about how you don't think Superior Investor has "productive" talk or "conversations". You must not be reading the same website I am."

JAP said: "[quote=scottlarock]Well he was right, but if you do make a call and you stick too it, you will be right eventually (when it comes to a down/up call on the market anyways). (as much as I dislike Cryo, that is what he said today) So I searched old posts to see what JAP said since I've only been around a month. posted August 18, 2006. [URL="http://www.superiorinvestor.net/thread3585.html"]http://www.superiorinvestor.net/thread3585.html[/URL] Not only did we not see a blood bath but we saw a huge run. I've been a "bear" on the market since December (whoops!). Though I didn't sell off all positions until mid-July (around 40% of what WAS in the market, and didn't add anything to the market even though there was cash flow to add since December). If you search the message forum you'll see that I said I got out 100% when I came to this forum. Though, I think I didn't arrive until the drop had begun. Not trying to be a dick on this, just pointing out that JAP's call doesn't make him some super market guru that was a perfectly timed "high." Not that there is such a person anyways, well other than Cryo! ha ha Though Dave, nice to see you congratulate him on this anyways, since you h ad been talkin' down on his calls :respect:[/quote] Yup, was I early then, so... I remained cautious and started day trading... made some decent money doing that. Then I became very bearish again at DOW 14K and SPX 1500. Today, the FED is with screwing with the interest rates (discount rate cut)... and shorts are covering like [B]mad[/B] today. I don't know if this interest rate cut will attract "new money", but it will certainly drive the market up in the short term. This FED intervention (band-aid) is basically saying there is something seriously wrong with the market and that will most likely be negative over the long term. At least all this volatility makes it interesting."

AlfredSokol said: "I think Jap's calls are pretty good. He deserves credit for them. But no cash! :th_SmlyROFL:"

DaveinJapan said: "Alfred, I suppose I'm just hoping to hear more people chiming in (especially during these interesting/volitile times)...and I seem to find more arguments than discussions. I do respect a lot of the posters here (yourself included), but it just seems that the conversations never really get going the way they should...before someone starts bitching."

LongArm said: "[QUOTE=JAP]This FED intervention (band-aid) is basically saying there is something seriously wrong with the market and that will most likely be negative over the long term. [/QUOTE] I think with the discount rate cut, they're saying there's something wrong with the [I]financial sector[/I], which we all know anyway."

AlfredSokol said: "Hmm. Well it's tough to find Utopia on message boards. Lots of people have different approaches to investing and some are very vocal about theres. Anyways I often attempt to be humorous in my posts but I realize that some people may intrepret it wrong because its text. But I do enjoy reading Jap's predictions because he makes them simple to understand and visual. I have a hard time understanding charts for some reason but his seem pretty clear. :clap:"

thezster said: "I give JAP credit for the call.. though it may have been a tad (tad???) early back in November... However, the correction we're seeing was inevitable - and I, for one, don't believe it's over quite yet. I'm moving cautiously to cash - yet saving a few hundred K in what I consider to be solid investments for the long term. Today's bounce is, IMHO, going to be short term (as shown by the triple digit down to double digit numbers this morning - then back again) - and that next week will bring a bit more red to the screens of those on this forum (cept CRYO, of course). I also see it as a reasonable duplicate of what will happen if we get a rate cut in September (Wall Street now expecting it) - a solid couple of days followed by more decline. I'll be selling on the rallies... and scooping up more mud swilling equities in the following days.... Over the long term.. this is just a blip on the radar.... and positioning yourself well today (figuratively speaking) - will pay off in the coming months...."

SporeMonger said: "[QUOTE=thezster]I give JAP credit for the call.. though it may have been a tad (tad???) early back in November... However, the correction we're seeing was inevitable - and I, for one, don't believe it's over quite yet. I'm moving cautiously to cash - yet saving a few hundred K in what I consider to be solid investments for the long term. Today's bounce is, IMHO, going to be short term (as shown by the triple digit down to double digit numbers this morning - then back again) - and that next week will bring a bit more red to the screens of those on this forum (cept CRYO, of course). I also see it as a reasonable duplicate of what will happen if we get a rate cut in September (Wall Street now expecting it) - a solid couple of days followed by more decline. I'll be selling on the rallies... and scooping up more mud swilling equities in the following days.... Over the long term.. this is just a blip on the radar.... and positioning yourself well today (figuratively speaking) - will pay off in the coming months....[/QUOTE] So, what do you suggest Z? I bought in when hell fire rained from the sky. Long or short in which sectors? I'm still long GRMN, MTOX and LEND."

thezster said: "[QUOTE=SporeMonger]So, what do you suggest Z? I bought in when hell fire rained from the sky. Long or short in which sectors? I'm still long GRMN, MTOX and LEND.[/QUOTE] My crystal ball is broke.. but I'll tell you what I'm thinking.... there are hundreds of bargain stocks out there right now poised to take advantage of a rate cut (inevitable, or not)... the question in my mind is "how much lower will they go, if at all" before the cut comes.... I want bargain basement swing trades.... However: Both LOW and HD come to mind in the home improvement sector... both are at good prices - both are solid bricks n morter companies that will - sooner or later - return to any price you buy them at... a rate cut will spike both up a solid 10+% on the day it happens... In the financial sector - I'm playing ETFC - though they have some exposure to the sub- prime industry - I believe their exposure is limited and their options in other financial areas is good.... You saw a 20% jump when the fed cut their overnight rate - and will see the same on a solid rate cut.... Is it a good buy around $13? Not sure... I'm going to wait a week or so to see if I can get it a bit cheaper... I don't expect the $11 I paid last week... but $12ish would be nice.... TOL is another performer in my portfolio that reacts handsomely to rate cuts of any sort... though I'd wait till after this week's earnings report to consider jumping in. Like any other home builder - they have some exposure to short/mid term difficulties during the housing crunch... I guess the question is... how much lower, if at all, will your picks go before a cut is announced... and - how good are you at picking the bottom before it happens.... Wall Street seems convinced that a rate cut is now inevitable.... if so - will you be on board when it happens? As for your holdings... LEND scares the heck out of me... I wouldn't hold it with Cryo's money... GRMN is still overpriced - though it's another solid company that could easily pop $100 again before year end - though I consider it an $80 stock at best... MTOX - sorry.. I know nothing about this one...."

DaveinJapan said: "Great info, Z, thank you! :) Totally agreed on LEND...you could find yourself with twice the cash overnight, OR zero...too much risk for my blood (though I did go for a daytrade and got slightly burned, but even at that I only bought a tiny 300 shares)."