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Home >> Stock Forums >> Blame real estate woes on the Flippers

Blame real estate woes on the Flippers

lil dickie said: "Indeed it turns out the real estate troubles are happening because of the "get-rich-quick" flippers who [url=http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/070830/083007_flippers_fuel_foreclosures.html?.v=2&.pf=loans]thought they would get in and get out[/url] of the real estate market. [quote] "Defaults are on the rise in most parts of the country, but...it is not always the case of a homeowner losing his or her home," Doug Duncan, the MBA's chief economist, said in a statement, "but [it's] often the case of an investor gambling on a continued increase in home values and losing that gamble." Several sun-belt states were magnets for real estate speculators during the home-price boom. Coastal California led the early charge, but as prices there raced ahead of affordability, many investors abandoned those markets for Central Valley cities as well as Las Vegas, Phoenix and other Arizona towns. Florida drew droves of investors from the Northeast, who spurred a rash of condo development in Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and other coastal towns. Single family home prices were also driven up in towns all over the Sunshine State.[/quote] It was almost like a case of musical chairs. When the music stopped...the flippers got clipped."

newinvestor123 said: "And believe it or not, the music is still going for most people... I think the speculators are going to be foreclosing at much higher rates than the traditional homeowners, and will foreclose relatively quickly instead of struggling to hang onto their home like the traditional homeowner will. We probably won't see the peak of foreclosures until February-March of next year. My reasoning? On the Credit Suisse ARM reset chart, October is the peak of subprime ARM resets - But that's only when they reset - It doesn't take into account the foreclosure process or the time it takes a homeowner to go into delinquency. I just realized (as I read the comments on some random financial blog) that there is at least a FOUR MONTH DELAY. Assuming 90 days for delinquency until the foreclosure is commenced and another 30 days for it to be reported (which is probably too optimistic), the effects of the reset peak, which occurs in October, won't actually be observed until February-March, and possibly later. For anyone who has not seen the chart I speak of yet: [IMG]http://www.smugmug.com/photos/136440158-O.png[/IMG] So... If there is a four month delay, then what does that mean for the current foreclosure rate? July's foreclosures were released on August 23. So, if we find the 7th bar from the left (which is July - the chart was created in January), and count four bars to the left, THOSE are the resets which resulted in the numbers reported on August 23. Notice anything interesting about that bar? It's the last one before the huge jump! And the chart hasn't even begun climbing yet! Haha! And until we hit the peak, guess what? Foreclosures are going to continue to rise. We are still in the VERY EARLY PHASES of this whole thing. The above thesis assumes only 4 months from the time of the ARM reset to the reported foreclosure, but I suspect there are many more traditional homeowners who bought at the top than most people suspect - And they will attempt to hang onto their homes for a while, instead of giving up the fight quickly a la the speculators. I forecast that, unless Bush and Ben do more than what has already been done, the foreclosure numbers will continue to rise until at least next March."

AlfredSokol said: "I agree with the comments about the speculators. They will give up because they are probably only interested in saving their "primary residence" from foreclosure. I think the foreclosures will continue to rise as long as the ARMs come due. Without innovative thinking, this whole fiasco will continue to march along just like it has so far. Thrift is the main thing that can save some of the houses, but with volatile rates, there's no guarantee of that either. The homeowners need a lifeline."

lil dickie said: "My buddy was a flipper until he got clipped. Now hes looking for any buyer he can find."

Pb3190 said: "It took a friend of mine over a year to sell one of his 'flip' houses. Thankfully he kept his real job and was fine, but it took a lot longer than he had hoped."

AlfredSokol said: "Some of these "flippers" were the cockiest people I ever met. They are still flipping now. Burgers that is."

Pb3190 said: "Too many of them thought it would be easy, quick money. When the bottom fell out, they didn't know what to do or were counting on that money to pay for something and needed it. I still get flyers in the paper about seminars on how to 'flip.' You would think by now that most people have figured out the market for housing isn't all that great right now in a lot of places."

AlfredSokol said: "This one guy I know really irked me. He was making good money doing the "Real estate thing" as he called it and he urged me to get in. I asked him "What's the downside"? He looked at me like I was crazy and said: "There is no downside." That's when I knew he was nuts and heading for a fall. He had a $1.5 million beachfront home in Florida that someone offered him $5 million and he turned it down because it was "too low." You think he's getting offers now?"

Pb3190 said: "I'm sure many 'flippers' became cocky after they sold a few homes, but my friend wasn't. Smart guy, just got into it all at the peak so it was hard to sell. It sounds like the guy you met had some major issues with greed..."

scottlarock said: "don't forget that as soon as the ARMs reset that doesn't mean the people can't still pay the payments for awhile. They might deplete their savings first and put the place up for sale in trying to get rid of it. Or they might just work their behinds off to try and afford the place. Though at some point they'll probably give up. So, I would guess that the worst of the foreclosures won't happen until mid to late 08. Potentially even getting worse as people that lose their jobs and get a job in another city will then be forced to lose the home since it won't sell. Or it won't sell for what they paid for it/owe on it still."

AlfredSokol said: "They're debating on whether to help out the ARM holders on Capital Hill right now. I don't see anything happening fast but you never know."

Aligator said: ""Flippers" irritate the hell out of me. Liars irritate me, too. Irresponsible people just piss me off. Yesyerday we went up to visit our daughter. She lives in a nice neighborhood; new, with $350,000 houses. Her husband is the developer. They have 3 or 4 forclosures going on in their neighborhood. And the problem isn't ARM's - it's people who 'stated' their income and really weren't qualified to buy the house in the first place. So they haven't lost their jobs, their mortgage payment hasn't gone up, but they are still going to be part of the statistics of "people who lost their homes during the.........blah, blah, blah". And guess what?........they're going to want a bail out. So they lied their silly asses off to get a loan that they never had a prayer of paying off. And now that they heard foreclosures are on the rise they are going to stupidly allow themselves to fail......assholes.:angry:"

Pb3190 said: "When it comes to finances Aligator, the general population of this country seems very uneducated..."

lil dickie said: "[QUOTE=Aligator]"Flippers" irritate the hell out of me. Liars irritate me, too. Irresponsible people just piss me off. Yesyerday we went up to visit our daughter. She lives in a nice neighborhood; new, with $350,000 houses. Her husband is the developer. They have 3 or 4 forclosures going on in their neighborhood. And the problem isn't ARM's - it's people who 'stated' their income and really weren't qualified to buy the house in the first place. So they haven't lost their jobs, their mortgage payment hasn't gone up, but they are still going to be part of the statistics of "people who lost their homes during the.........blah, blah, blah". And guess what?........they're going to want a bail out. So they lied their silly asses off to get a loan that they never had a prayer of paying off. And now that they heard foreclosures are on the rise they are going to stupidly allow themselves to fail......assholes.:angry:[/QUOTE] Dont be so sure that the "financial professional" didnt tell them to do that in order to qualify. These companies pushed these mortgages hard."

AlfredSokol said: "I definitely see what Aligator is saying. He's talking about the same cocky idiots I am. They thought there was no downside and they would even lie to get approved for mortgages. Well DUH. Of course there's a downside and they were ill prepared to deal with it."

Pb3190 said: "A housing developer with many develpments in my area is under fire for giving out loans to people they knew would not be able to pay. They were pushing folks into buying houses, when they had no business buying anything at all."

AlfredSokol said: "Maybe we'll see criminal investigations the same way we do when any industry blows up."

Aligator said: "[QUOTE=AlfredSokol]Maybe we'll see criminal investigations the same way we do when any industry blows up.[/QUOTE] I'm betting we don't. No doubt - no doubt at all! - there were people sold mortgages who had no business buying those particular mortgages. I'm speaking of the people who were neither qualified nor informed. But they signed all the papers saying they WERE informed and that sort of thing is real, real hard to punch through. Most of the dealers in that sort of paper are paying the price now. They may not lose their shirt the way their victims will, but they will be put out of business. I had noticed the explosion in mortgage companies over the last few years. Used to be, the bank was the place to get a mortgage. And you had to pay points and other nonsensical costs, so the banks did all of this to themselves by opening up the door to lower cost competition. Unfortunately the competition was not regulated the way banks are. Banks, as far as I know, never indulged in such things as 'interest only' loans. At least not for us mortals. Sounds and feels like the S&L stuff all over again."

Pb3190 said: "I know of one developer that is under investigation, but I don't know of any proof of criminal actions. Sure, it sounds wrong to us, but like Aligator said, the contracts have been signed."

AlfredSokol said: "If they were smart they "covered their asses." That's what most sheisters do in the end."

Heather said: "I think a lot of flippers are "flipping in the wind" living off of borrowed money. It's just a matter of time. Someone might be able to swoop into some foreclosure deals if they look hard enough.."

scottlarock said: "[QUOTE=Heather]I think a lot of flippers are "flipping in the wind" living off of borrowed money. It's just a matter of time. Someone might be able to swoop into some foreclosure deals if they look hard enough..[/QUOTE] Depends on the area. Some places the home prices doubled. They are still very high. It's going to be hard to get a deal in those places yet. In areas that didn't go up much, you probably could. Especially if you need a place to live (instead of renting)."

lil dickie said: "The Flippers could always just rent. If they can find someone to rent from them."

Pb3190 said: "I would guess that some of them have started doing that, but all of the infomercials I still see on flipping stress the 'quick profit,' without risk! Many people would rather sell for the big money instead of renting for years. Especially if they had no desire to become a land lord and worry about renters."

lil dickie said: "You really cant be a flipper IMHO unless you can "get in get out"."

EWhytsell said: "Its known that the 2 major sub division developers here in Columbus, OH are under investigation for mortgage fraud. I know quite a number of people who have purchased houses "Interest only for 30 years" and on shorter term ARM loans and I cannot figure what they were thinking. To me buying a home on an adjustable loan is just not smart even if you think your going to sell in less than 5 years. 5 years is alot of days and alot of chances for something to change that could cause you to be stuck in the house and stuck in a mortgage time bomb about to go off. Luckily here in Central, OH we are still seeing alot of people moving from rural towns and even from Cleveland and Cincy to Columbus due to there dying economies and columbus is still in a pretty good job market for now. Evan"

AlfredSokol said: "People are amazing. They get so fooled into thinking that things can't go wrong. Why? Things go wrong all the time! Of course there have been many periods in US history where home values haven't gone up. And these time periods go on for years."

Pb3190 said: "The recent upward trend in home prices has many people thinking they will just keep going up. People keep trying to flip, oblivious to the housing market tumbling around them."

lil dickie said: "Real estate has had these boom/bust periods before. California has been very susceptible in the past."

Aligator said: "[QUOTE=lil dickie]Real estate has had these boom/bust periods before. California has been very susceptible in the past.[/QUOTE] We moved to Texas in 1990 - a mistake we have since rectified - and at that time if you wanted to rent a U-Hual truck and were going to California they would, like, [I]give[/I] you the truck because there were so many trucks coming out of California."

Pb3190 said: "I lived in Texas for a while and liked it for the most part, what didn't you like Aligator?"

FirefighterB said: "I heart Texas. Of course, I lived in Austin, which isn't really like the rest of Texas. I wasn't a big fan of Dallas or Houston, but I definitely loved Austin. Young city, good vibe, tons to do, relatively inexpensive, growing well, etc."

Aligator said: "[QUOTE=Pb3190]I lived in Texas for a while and liked it for the most part, what didn't you like Aligator?[/QUOTE] Aw, it wasn't that I didn't like Texas that much. I got a little tired of all those people pounding their chests and screaming about the virtues of being a Texan, that's all. And a lot of it is just butt ugly - especially during the winter. But we'd go back if some situation came up that made it advantageous."

FirefighterB said: "[QUOTE=Aligator] I got a little tired of all those people pounding their chests and screaming about the virtues of being a Texan, that's all. And a lot of it is just butt ugly - especially during the winter. [/QUOTE] Agreed. I couldn't believe the amount of Texas-sized this and Texas-edition thats there. They print special beer labels for most of the beers that either have a Texas flag or a picture of the state on them. I've lived in quite a few states and I've never seen that before. North Carolina definitely has some proud citizens, but nowhere near TX. Plus, it's one of the few states where people get the flag, or pieces/parts of the flag, tattooed on their person."

Pb3190 said: "In North, mostly South Carolina some people still have the Confederate flags as tattoos."

JAP said: "[quote=AlfredSokol][B]People are amazing. They get so fooled into thinking that things can't go wrong. Why?[/B] Things go wrong all the time! Of course there have been many periods in US history where home values haven't gone up. And these time periods go on for years.[/quote] It's called [B][I]greed[/I][/B]."

AlfredSokol said: "Indeed. Irrational exuberance because you think there's more money more money more money. I know the feeling. :dazed052:"

Maverick Investor said: "And until recently, I thought Flipper was a friendly dolphin ;-)"

AlfredSokol said: "[QUOTE=Maverick Investor;59877]And until recently, I thought Flipper was a friendly dolphin ;-)[/QUOTE] For a long time that was true. :th_dblthumb2:"

okaythen said: "so exactly how did flippers mess up the RE?"

FirefighterB said: "[QUOTE=okaythen;60342]so exactly how did flippers mess up the RE?[/QUOTE] Because [I]Rich Dad, Poor Dad[/I] (among the million other books) made making money in RE look and sound EASY. You got people that had no idea how the market worked and no business in it getting loans, rehabbing, and flipping houses. They believed that home values would be ever-increasing, so they bid up the prices of homes to unreasonable levels and we're able to pay the prices due to loose lending practices and unscrupulous appraisers/lenders. Finally, the bottom began to fall out, the music stopped, and people were left holding the bag, as they will continue to till (at least) sometime in 2009. The same thing happened in the dot.com bust, the crash of '29, the 1925-1926 Florida real estate crash, Tulip Mania, the South Sea Bubble, the...trails off... You could say it's happened a lot in the past. Whenever wealth seems "easy" to the masses, they will flock to that idea and much of their ensuing wealth is created "artificially" through driven up prices. But, nothing works for ever and the piper must eventually be paid."

DStewart said: "I wouldn't blame the flippers on the whole drop in the home market. Yes, they helped push it, but only at a extremely small amount. The biggest problem was the banks themselves. Using simplistic formulas to calculate whether to give out loans was their biggest mistake (and still is). They typically use income and debt to income ratio (along with credit reporting scores, etc. of course) to determine loan amounts for everybody. The drawback is they never (and still don't) look at a person's finances as a whole. They never take into account that most of the public spends more than they make. They never take into account that if John Q is spending 40% of his monthly income on entertainment, he couldn't possibly afford to keep making his mortgage payments. But, this isn't in one's credit report. And banks don't ask to see spending history. Yes, they look at income. High-risk lending is another factor. Giving "second chance" loans to people with poor credit. What's funny is that they know that statistically people with poor credit are a credit risk and still handed out loans like Kleenex. Needless to say, this whole situation is a result of poor financial management on both the lenders and the consumers parts. America has become "financially illiterate". And I don't see that changing for a long time. We have forgotten to learn from history. The 1929 crash was the result of excessive use of credit. The generation that grew up at that time learned their lesson from it and were not as likely to use credit for purchases (the baby boomers parents). Unfortunately, Baby Boomers and Gen X-ers didn't have to experience a depression to learn smart financial management."

FirefighterB said: "[QUOTE=DStewart;62980]The biggest problem was the banks themselves. Using simplistic formulas to calculate whether to give out loans was their biggest mistake (and still is).[/QUOTE] I wholeheartedly agree with what you said. But, while I agree the banks were complicit in their lending practices, someone had to decide what a fair price was and put their John Hancock on the bottom line of the mortgage. "You mean, I can get a $650k house with no down payment and a combined income of $90k?" Sure, the banks and brokers shouldn't have been pushing products like that. But, I don't take the burden off the shoulders of the mortgagee in deciding that this was possible on their income and a reasonable price for them to pay for a house. Greed, irrationality, and serious lack of common sense on all fronts."

DStewart said: "[QUOTE=FirefighterB;62988]I wholeheartedly agree with what you said. But, while I agree the banks were complicit in their lending practices, someone had to decide what a fair price was and put their John Hancock on the bottom line of the mortgage. "You mean, I can get a $650k house with no down payment and a combined income of $90k?" Sure, the banks and brokers shouldn't have been pushing products like that. But, I don't take the burden off the shoulders of the mortgagee in deciding that this was possible on their income and a reasonable price for them to pay for a house. Greed, irrationality, and serious lack of common sense on all fronts.[/QUOTE] We definately share a mutual agreement then. No, banks are not the sole blame for whole downfall. Consumers are equally responsible. The bottom line is that "we", this country, brought this upon ourselves by poor financial management. I particularly like the article you linked to in your other post. The part in which the author predicts we will become more of a "cash economy" is probably not very unlikely. That is what happened after the 1929 crash."

FirefighterB said: "[QUOTE=DStewart;63014]... The bottom line is that "we", this country, brought this upon ourselves by poor financial management. ... [/QUOTE] Perfectly said. As for your hope for a depression-esque hit that returns us to sound financial principles and reasonable (if not cheap) values; we are in congruence. While I really don't find joy in thinking of the suffering and hardship that having a severe recession/Depression will bring on this country, I think that kind of "deep shift" in values, beliefs, and actions might be the only thing that rights this debt laden ship. If you think about those that grew up in the Depression aren't most of them fiscally responsible? Didn't most live well within their means? Did they go overboard on extravagant homes, vehicles, and materialistic items? This type of personal (hell, and governmental) financial understanding is desperately needed in this country. A serious hit might be the only thing that returns us to that."

JAP said: "[quote=okaythen;60342]so exactly how did flippers mess up the RE?[/quote] Maybe this will help. Just a few bullet points off the top of my head... [LIST] [*]The tech bubble and 9/11 causes the market to tank. [*]In fear of economic collapse, Greenspan lowers the interest rates again and again all the way down to 1%. All this cheap money leads to... [*]Greedy, unscrupulous banks and mortgage companies begin pushing ARM loans because they made higher commissions and better rates of return. The low monthly (interest only) payments were very attractive. Joe Public ate it up. [*]With the increased buyers flooding the market, lax lending standards become standard practice. (ie. no doc/liar loans). [*]The number of buyers/flippers (who figured they'd better get in now while they can) increases significantly. [*]By the summer of 2005, RE inventories drop to record lows and helps drive up prices 75-125%. Greed is running rampant. Lenders are making money hand-over-fist. [*]Oooops... ARMs begin resetting. The party is coming to an end and it's time to pay the piper. [*]Buyers realize they can't pay the piper because they bought a home they could never afford and had no business buying in the first place, mostly via liar loans. [*]House prices start dropping, foreclosures are increasing, so are the inventories. [*]Prices continuing dropping and dropping, albeit slowly.[/LIST]Many of the the people who hit the "RE lottery" took out home equity loans and spent a majority of it on frivolous crap they didn't need. They used their house as an ATM machine. Most did this when house values were at their peak. Notice how long it takes for housing to drop. That's because real estate is not very liquid. It's a major pain in the ass to buy or sell a home. The stock market has crazy liquidity, that's why it's so volatile... just click your mouse a few times and you're out. So far, housing has lost 15-25% on average. States like Florida and California are going to feel much more pain than someone who lives in Ohio or Montana. I estimate we will see housing prices come back to what they were in 2000-2001. The stock market will not start moving up again until RE stabilizes."

Airelon said: "A depression will not lead to sound financial planning, and ideals. The last depression led to a socialist / communist president. Communist governmental plans that still haunt us and cause us more debt. And people turning to the communist party in droves. People don't wake up when times get tough. They look for something else to hand them a free lunch. So generally, they get even more idiotic. Because to wake up? Would mean that they would have to admit guilt. And the sort of people that got us into these problems? Are not the type to admit guilt. They are the type that tries to lay blame on others. These are the same people whose solution? Is to print up more money and hand it around to everyone."

FirefighterB said: "[QUOTE=Airelon;63391]A depression will not lead to sound financial planning, and ideals. The last depression led to a socialist / communist president. Communist governmental plans that still haunt us and cause us more debt. And people turning to the communist party in droves. People don't wake up when times get tough. They look for something else to hand them a free lunch. So generally, they get even more idiotic. Because to wake up? Would mean that they would have to admit guilt. And the sort of people that got us into these problems? Are not the type to admit guilt. They are the type that tries to lay blame on others. These are the same people whose solution? Is to print up more money and hand it around to everyone.[/QUOTE] And you think Hillary's mandatory healthcare plan ISN'T Communist/Socialist? Will McCain's belief that we should/could be in Iraq for 100 more years help keep our government from racking up more and more debt on a war (or new wars) we can't fight in the name of "terror?" I won't even touch on Obama being willing to drop a nuke on Iran... I'll agree that, now, people will expect a free lunch moreso than they did in the 30's and that most people do not/will not admit guilt. However, I disagree with your statement that a depression would not change mentality. When people are making monetary decisions that will mean whether they have a roof over their heads or a meal in their bellies, not whether to go with the interest free credit card on the flat-screen or get the Dolce and Gabbana bag since it also comes with free sunglasses, they will shift their habits. I look at my grandparents that have great retirements and rather large investment accounts; yet they live in the same house they bought in 1967. They drive everywhere, don't put anything on credit, hardly take vacations, play golf at the community golf course instead of joining an expensive golf club, and they have old furniture. They both grew up during the depression and, with that mentality, they save their money. Because, they know from experience, things could get worse and stay that way for awhile. Saving for a rainy day. People now have little idea of the value of this because, as you stated previously, we haven't really had sustained "rainy days" (read, 2+ years of down markets/recessions/etc.) since the 1970s. The previous, nearly, 30 years of unabated prosperity have dimmed the memories of struggling to pay bills, not having a job, and black letter food brands."

beachmaster said: "My first post... I saw what was written here, and as an experienced "flipper", I had to put in my two cents worth. First off, starting in the mid nineties, then again in the mid 2000's, I've flipped some 50 properties, mostly single family homes. Just a little background so you understand I know what I'm talking about. What I've seen here is people who equate the terms "flipper" with "speculator". This is a gross error. Anyone who buys a house, takes ownership and an obligation to make payments, and then resells it later in an attempt to make a gain is a speculator. Frequently this type of speculator will buy run down houses and will put a lot of money into the fix up. Others bought new homes and condos and figured they would sit on them for 6 months or a year, then resell. They are NOT flippers by my definition. They are speculators. Especially the ones who bought new homes hoping they would go up. How foolish! A true flipper who is good, will not even own the house. They put it under contract to buy, at a price which is at least no more than 70% LTV (but that's the upper limit... 60-65% is much better). The longer the term of the contract, the better. Of course the contract is fully assignable without any consent required of the seller. The "flipper" locates a buyer who typically is another investor with cash or lots of credit. The flipper sells the contract to the new buyer. Sometimes, depending on circumstances, two closings have to take place whereby the "flipper" owns the house for 5 minutes. I hate those kind, because then you have two sets of closing costs. So where is the speculation? Ok, there is some, if you have a conscience that is. If you can't find a buyer before it's time to close, you should buy the house, and that's the rub. You didn't intend to become a speculator, but you did. However, IF you got it for less than 70% LTV based on TODAY's market price, you will sell it fast. It's the idiots who think they got a good deal at 80% LTV or worse, bought at full price at today's market, and hoped to sell. True flippers merely flip the house. They don't plan on holding and selling at a later date. I know the TV shows redefined the meaning of the word, but they are wrong. They are showing people who buy, fix, then market the house for sell, after months of holding costs. They speculate their money by putting it into the house. A flipper only puts money into marketing, mostly for sellers, but also a little for finding quick cash buyers. Hope I was able to put some clarity into this thread. By the way, here in Florida it has become nearly impossible to flip any more. Plenty of willing sellers, but they are all upside down, and unless you are willing to devote a lot of time and expertise into doing short sales with the lenders, there isn't a lot you can buy today at under 70% LTV due to the over financing that went on the past couple of years. I went back to my day job! :laugh:"

ratAphooey said: "Nice post Beachmaster I learned a lot."

okaythen said: "I am thinking about buying few houses in FL to invest in, to hold collect rent, are there any towns/area you can recommend?"

StockMan69 said: "[QUOTE=okaythen;67552]I am thinking about buying few houses in FL to invest in, to hold collect rent, are there any towns/area you can recommend?[/QUOTE] Check out Sarasota if you have a taste for [url=http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20080407/COLUMNIST58/804070498/-1/newssitemap]foreclosure[/url] properties. You can get some decent homes cheap if you can negotiate the deal."

pranith said: "No, real estate investiment is not esy as it looks . It requires alot of risk as in the other busineses has. We can get richer if the business is quite good."

sr106 said: "yes, real estate business is so risky, the people have lot of efficiency to do.... nowadays also some of them quite getting some problems to do that business..."