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Home >> Stock Forums >> September dollar info

September dollar info

squarepusher said: "What effect do you think any Fed action (which is expected) will have on USD? Which change "pair" will most likely be most effected with the USD? we should look into getting in before the Fed's meeting and bet on or against the dollar, whos with me?"

newinvestor123 said: "Damn right you should - The consensus is that the FED is going to ignore inflation and lower rates by at least a 1/4 point. My personal opinion is that the only way the FED can possibly save the housing market is by lowering the general rate by a full point or more, and they will kick their inflation ignoring phase off with a 1/4 to 1/2 point rate cut in September. Lower FED rates mean higher inflation, which is bearish for the (already weak) dollar, and therefore bullish for gold. The standard comparative currency pair is the USD/EUR, and the standard belief is that the EUR is strong and the USD is weak. The moral? Buy gold stocks before gold rises above $700, because when it does, gold stocks will rocket."

squarepusher said: "[QUOTE=newinvestor123]Damn right you should - The consensus is that the FED is going to ignore inflation and lower rates by at least a 1/4 point. My personal opinion is that the only way the FED can possibly save the housing market is by lowering the general rate by a full point or more, and they will kick their inflation ignoring phase off with a 1/4 to 1/2 point rate cut in September. Lower FED rates mean higher inflation, which is bearish for the (already weak) dollar, and therefore bullish for gold. The standard comparative currency pair is the USD/EUR, and the standard belief is that the EUR is strong and the USD is weak. The moral? Buy gold stocks before gold rises above $700, because when it does, gold stocks will rocket.[/QUOTE] wow, thanks for the tip on that newinvestor123. ALSO, I think it might be a good idea to short the USD/EUR? from maybe in 1 week from now, until after the 18th at least. PS. I am researching some other interesting things I will post in another thread."

newinvestor123 said: "I like gold stocks because as long as gold stays above $350, they can turn a profit. At $650, most of them are making $350 on every ounce of gold they dig out of the ground right now. Most analysts are forecasting that gold's price will remain elevated for some time, and I feel the same way - So I think gold is a good sector to be in. As for shorting the USD vs the EUR - I don't know about that. The consensus is that the FED will cut rates, but no one really knows what Bernanke's going to do until he does it. The dollar and gold move inversely to each other, so I guess either one would be a good way to play a falling dollar - However, I think downside risk with gold and gold stocks is limited, while a strong dollar rally would quickly cause a leveraged FOREX short evaporate into nothing."

AlfredSokol said: "Bernanke won't cut the rate IMHO because he hates inflation."