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Home >> Stock Forums >> Realtors group say US Home market already rebounding

Realtors group say US Home market already rebounding

AlfredSokol said: "A group of realtors has a contrarian view concerning the US housing market. They say things are [url=http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071210/housing_forecast_realtors.html]stabilizing[/url] [quote] Bucking conventional wisdom, a trade group for real estate agents on Monday said the battered housing market is on the verge of stabilizing and inched up its outlook for 2007 and 2008 home sales. The revised monthly forecast from the National Association of Realtors, which followed nine straight months of downward revisions, calls for U.S. existing home sales to fall 12.5 percent this year to 5.67 million -- the lowest level since 2002. Last month, the association predicted 5.66 million existing homes would be sold this year. The Realtors' group also forecast sales will rise slightly in 2008 to 5.7 million, up from last month's prediction of 5.69 million.[/quote] Of course no one really believes them. But that is a very interesting idea that sales might rise slightly. Not the ugly scene everyone else is predicting."

thezster said: "I've got to give them this much.... I continue to see more '' sold'' signs lately than I do "New reduced price" signs... in the local environment. I, for one, think the housing market (in select markets) has, in fact, bottomed out for the most part.... and am currently searching for new "fix n flip" opportunities...."

AlfredSokol said: "Interesting. So you are in in-line with what they're saying. Let's hope the good news continues."

FirefighterB said: "I find it hard to trust anyone that gives advice about a subject in which their livelihood is based on commission through that subject. These realtors are SUFFERING because people are scared and not buying. If they can "turn" these people by saying everything is fine, then they have a better chance at making money again. I prefer to believe the cold, hard numbers. The amount of loans resetting, the still-high prices of homes in relation to salaries, and the dried up "easy" loan availability make me still a believer that we're nowhere near done. However, of course, we will have blips up. Nothing seems to go straight down in the monetary world, as there is always someone that thinks the current price is "cheap." But, with the "time" that it has been since the bad news has hit, compared to the normal real estate cycle length and the slowing of the economy, I am not a believer that this is the bottom, at least in the majority of areas. For instance, the Dayton, Ohio, market has been beaten down since way before the 2005 peak and, hell, you can get a GREAT house for less than 100k; many for less than 70k. There really isn't much more fall left in the market there, except for them becoming worthless; which isn't out of the question, by any means."

AlfredSokol said: "Housing becoming worthless seems improbable based on historical data. At least, let's hope."

FirefighterB said: "[QUOTE=AlfredSokol;58929]Housing becoming worthless seems improbable based on historical data. At least, let's hope.[/QUOTE] Not totally "worthless", of course, but perhaps not salable or worth much less than its already depressed price. Dayton is a dying city though and I'm speaking, mainly, within it's city limits. It is already possible to buy very nice homes for less than 50k on a pretty regular basis and I've seen more than a few at less than 10k. It's turning into Detroit, as more and more plants close and more and more jobs leave that aren't being replaced."

ratAphooey said: "Dayton has been dying for years like most of the rust belt. The aholes running the Midwestern states need to come up with something one of these days."

Maverick Investor said: "I agree with FirefighterB - these guys are 'talking their book'! Cheers!"

newinvestor123 said: "Don't get our your party hats yet - The housing slump is far from over. [IMG]http://bigpicture.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/12/28/inventory_of_unsol_homes.png[/IMG] [URL="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/12/dollar-value-in.html#comments"]Here's meh source.[/URL]"

AlfredSokol said: "No doubt the housing slump will continue to be bad, especially in the overheated areas. People have lost 9% or more of their home value in certain places in a few months! Not a good feeling at all. Until buyers start thinking they're getting bargains, expect more of the same."

Airelon said: "I'm probably going to wait a year before I start looking to buy. I'm just south of Detroit, so we're pretty hard hit in this area. In addition, we have a state that doesn't seem to know how to balance a budget, and was on the verge of a 'shutdown'. So things aren't too rosey. I've got my eye on some homes though. I just keep my eye on them as I go about my business. It will be at least another year before I start look at coming up with an [I]active[/I] strategy for buying. At this point, I just see more downside, which means more upside . . . for me. :) Because we all know what Lex Luthor's dad said about real estate. :)"

FirefighterB said: "I find it hard to trust someone whose sole source of income depends on whether or not I buy whatever they're selling to give me advice. They've said the market has "bottomed" more than once and they just keep getting proven wrong. Most people I know in the industry are hurting, bad, and are doing everything they can to calm (coerce) buyers back into the market. If they don't say the market has bottomed, then people will be scared and not interested in buying for fear of losing money/value if it falls further. Much of the Rust Belt has been falling for years, but I think they've got further as the RE market continues to fall and as more and more car plants downsize and/or shut down. A few of my friends that work in the auto industry say things remain bleak. In Dayton, it's possible we will lose two more car/supplier plants, which will wreak absolute havoc on an already suffering economy. I think you're definitely in the right to wait at least another year. However, in your market, I would also make it a point to listen intently to the rumblings in the auto industry. If the RE market recovers, yet the auto industry continues to falter, you could still end up in a declining asset."

newinvestor123 said: "The rent to buy ratio is still way out of whack too. [url]http://efinancedirectory.com/articles/Study_Shows_Huge_Gap_Between_Rents_and_House_Prices.html[/url]"

Aligator said: "[QUOTE=newinvestor123;60759]The rent to buy ratio is still way out of whack too. [url]http://efinancedirectory.com/articles/Study_Shows_Huge_Gap_Between_Rents_and_House_Prices.html[/url][/QUOTE] That's kind of interesting stuff, that rent/buy ratio. And it supports something I have been saying for several year,[I] "Everyone who possibly could buy a home around here, already has"[/I]. Our rental properties are paid for. But if we tried to buy anew and get started all over the way some people are, we'd be hurting for a bunch of years; the figures just don't add up without putting lots of capital into it. We talk about selling them and truly retiring, but we haven't decided yet; our existing rentors would buy if we let 'em, and the prospect of getting another 15 years' income with no obligation (if we carried the note) is kinda appealing.:)"

pranith said: "yes, what they said is really good. US real estate market is rebouncing again and soon we can see the past situation."

AlfredSokol said: "The worst might not be over yet but it seems it's getting close. Foreclosed houses are selling. If the inventory on foreclosures gets snapped up "normal" houses shouldn't be far behind."