Thinking of shorting TYC

SporeMonger said: "I should have shorted already but I was too busy to even pay attention to the market today. Hell! I'm still at work 13hrs. and counting. They blew-out earnings and the stock is going nowhere. It has climbed to a resistance level and it is also high on it's CCI, RSI and STO. Perfect short IMHO. Any thoughts?"

Cryogenix said: "Last: 40.50 At the moment, it's positioned comfortably above 39.37 support. While it appears the current peak is rounding, I don't see it that way at all. This is a pattern I call "Bouncing Betty" because at just about this point where those tiny peaks are, it should suddenly launch upward and create a second, similar-looking diagonal arc to about 45-46. As with my Cobra, Leaf Spring and Jaws patterns, Bouncing Betty is still being tested for accuracy and reliability. The fundies don't look so hot, though. I'm going with a climb. :) BTW, if it fails to "jump" in the next few sessions, it's not a Bouncing Betty."

SporeMonger said: "We will see. Its moving averages are also inverted with both, the 200-MA and 100-MA still slanting down. Volume rose in the last three sessions without a breakout. I'm sticking with a drop. :)"

Cryogenix said: "Very volatile opening, seeing the price plummet to 39.74, which isn't uncommon for stocks about to make a big climb. Now back at 40.20, some good money's coming in, including a 20,000 block. I'm sticking with a climb. :)"

1997zj said: "Wait...So your saying many stocks plummet to 39.74 before they climb? Dam so POT has to pull back almost $100 before it takes off again!!"

Cryogenix said: "[QUOTE=1997zj;63362]Wait...So your saying many stocks plummet to 39.74 before they climb? Dam so POT has to pull back almost $100 before it takes off again!![/QUOTE] Crap, I revealed another of my trading secrets. Yup...39.74's the magic number for a crazy ass climb. :flipoff:"

Cryogenix said: "If I'm not mistaken, this is an "earnings flag"... Very bullish. :) [IMG]http://i16.photobucket.com/albums/b20/cryocide/TYC.jpg[/IMG]"

Fluidollar said: "That's a neat short I'd probly short hte shit out of it if it dropped below 39"

LongArm said: "[QUOTE=Cryogenix;63369]If I'm not mistaken, this is an "earnings flag"... Very bullish. :) [/quote] LOL! Earnings was 3 days ago. So-called earnings flags occur over a span of several DAYS, immediately following the announcement--not in the space of 20 minutes, 3 days after the fact. Funny stuff. As usual."

1997zj said: "hmmm Cyro may be onto something!! check out the new TYC graph...see any trends? [IMG]http://i159.photobucket.com/albums/t137/jeeper87/23232323232323232323.jpg[/IMG]"

Cryogenix said: "You must be stuck in 1940 or something with thinking like that. Daily "earnings flags" also exist within a week after reporting, just as they can be created over a period of weeks following reporting. What happened today was "current" textbook charting off that flag. It climbed, made two peaks, formed a small bowl, climbed again and dropped down. Maybe you should read some updated books, combined with a seldom-used method called "outside the box, individualized thinking." Unlike you, I'm not narrow-minded. [IMG]http://i16.photobucket.com/albums/b20/cryocide/tyc2.jpg[/IMG]"

Cryogenix said: "BTW, if I were Darren, I wouldn't be at all concerned with any type of "small talk" ranting made in the shoutbox, but I would start deleting all your posts that continually destroy what start off as productive, friendly threads. Look back at all the threads. I never start any of this crap, you guys do, but I'm happy to return the favor. Grow up. You're nothing but children."

1997zj said: "Cyro please you instigate everything. Why would everyone block YOU if they were the ones who started things? I'm all for posts that use actual methods of picking stocks. Methods that are used correctly in the right manor. Not some babble. but to each their own! cheers"

LongArm said: "Cryo, this is a forum. Just as you have the right to make ridiculous statements, we have the right to say how ridiculous they are. And saying a 20-minute intraday pattern is somehow related to earnings which occured 3 days ago is definitely ridiculous. You're right about one thing though: You ARE an out-of-the-box thinker. :whacky011:"

Cryogenix said: "Last: 40.10 (.40 loss) Congrats on the good call so far, Spore. You win this round. :)"

Cryogenix said: "[QUOTE=1997zj;63377]Cyro please you instigate everything. Why would everyone block YOU if they were the ones who started things?[/QUOTE] People mock what they haven't the mental capacity or imagination to understand. Just keep being led around by Wall Street. I prefer not to be."

Corey said: "[QUOTE=Cryogenix;63375] [IMG]http://i16.photobucket.com/albums/b20/cryocide/tyc2.jpg[/IMG][/QUOTE] Or it could be as simple as three fairly well formed channels... [IMG]http://img230.imageshack.us/img230/3196/screencaptureia1.png[/IMG]"

SporeMonger said: "[QUOTE=Cryogenix;63379]Last: 40.10 (.40 loss) Congrats on the good call so far, Spore. You win this round. :)[/QUOTE] Just wait a little while longer. I'll let you know when I'm out. Yes... I did short it. I expect it to hit 35."

Cryogenix said: "Spore, what's even more interesting about this play now is, that article released at the close on Friday, saying Michigan is suing Tyco. I saw that article as a way to scare people into selling now, so they'll miss the big climb that's coming. It makes sense to me. The stock is trading at a high range, the market is falling apart and they're being sued. Shorting now would seem like a no-brainer, and I think that's just what the MM wants traders to think. It all seems far too easy. BTW, is it just coincidence that I saw that earnings flag in Friday's chart, and Saturday they posted great financials? It's all linked and pre-planned... :)"

Cryogenix said: "Currently: 40.00 This is some superb-looking consolidation here. This has the appearance of being like so many of my plays last Winter/Spring, when the market was robust. Long conlines and volume surges that you ride to the top. Buy sizes and volume are looking terrific. Confirmation of the climb is 44.06."

SporeMonger said: "Your observations are noted Cryo. So far, it's acting like it should. If I'm wrong about the stock, I won't lose my principal. That's what counts."

Cryogenix said: "Currently: 40.68 (high of the day) Decent gap-up this morning. The last day for it to be an official Bouncing Betty, and it finally pops. :) Question is, can it hold these gains and make more in the coming weeks?"

SporeMonger said: "Cryo, are you making up terms based on trading experiences? Is that what you are doing? Are you going to write a book based on your terms and experiences? Is it like the candlestick patterns but your own method? I just wanna understand."

Cryogenix said: "Along with common patterns outlined in numerous charting books, I look for my own patterns and name them whatever they resemble at first glance. Cobra usually has a slithering declining tail that creates an elongated convex head with a prominent, tucked-in forehead, then the tongue lashes up and it starts "hissing" up and down over 1-2 weeks and climbs again. Jaws is just a big dorsal fin coming off a particular decline that has a special notch in the fin. Once the fin is completed, the price doesn't typically drop below the back of the fin, and it's just a matter of time before it (err...the shark) shoots up out of the water (climbs). It's simply a quick and fun way of identifying and remembering certain repeating patterns. Bronotochomp is that two-hilled (rounded mounds) climb that extends with a long measured move (totally green neck) and then drops off sharply with a red line (a stream of blood from where the head was bitten off - this pattern is DOW-specific and I use it to day trade stocks that follow it - I've demonstrated in realtime in the shoutbox a few times back in Late-Fall). Looking at TYC again, this isn't a strong Bouncing Betty. It's the smoothness of the arch and the subtle contour and tiny peaks that resemble BB. Typically, this was already supposed to jump above the neighboring peaks by about .30, and it hasn't done that. It could be a variation, though, as very few patterns I've found are precisely alike, so it's necessary to be flexible when testing them. In any case, TYC still looks good for a further climb."

Cryogenix said: "Last: 40.73 Currently: 40.68 (and falling) Here's what BB usually does. It spikes up past neighboring peaks and then creates a second, smaller arch that spans approximately half the distance of the original, uninterrupted climb from absolute bottom to highest peak, bringing the final climb price to around 44-45, but I could see it reaching as high as 46.00. [IMG]http://i16.photobucket.com/albums/b20/cryocide/tyc-1.jpg[/IMG]"

Cryogenix said: "Currently: 41.53 (high) This has been looking very strong, and provided it can close in excess of 43.18, we should see a continued climb to 45.00+."

scottlarock said: "the whole MARKET is up. Hence, this going up. It won't see 45 unless the whole market continues to go up. The WHOLE market was up yesterday and today. Did your charts fail to notify you?"

Cryogenix said: "[QUOTE=scottlarock;64373]the whole MARKET is up. Hence, this going up. It won't see 45 unless the whole market continues to go up. The WHOLE market was up yesterday and today. Did your charts fail to notify you?[/QUOTE] You dopes still don't get it, do you? This will make better gains on green days, and incur less of a loss on red days on its way to 45+. That's the way it works. So, if the market starts to tank now, it will hold better than, say, BUD. Even on some of the reddest days, this has held its ground well."

scottlarock said: "[QUOTE=Cryogenix;64378]You dopes still don't get it, do you? This will make better gains on green days, and incur less of a loss on red days on its way to 45+. That's the way it works. So, if the market starts to tank now, it will hold better than, say, BUD.[/QUOTE] ok, I forgot you are a genius with 1 year of stock market experience. On a side note I'm sure you are going to argue that "see it did exactly like I said, the market went down 20% and this guy only went down 15%." Big deal who cares. It still won't make it to your 45 unless we see a market that goes up very damn near a close percentage. Maybe the market goes up 10% and it goes up 13%. Still went up with the market. Oh yes and then you'll come on here and claim it was all the manipulation and that you don't understand what is going on yadd yadda yadda. Just like you did the last time you were so damn wrong with like 8 0% of your claims."

Cryogenix said: "[QUOTE=scottlarock;64379]ok, I forgot you are a genius with 1 year of stock market experience. On a side note I'm sure you are going to argue that "see it did exactly like I said, the market went down 20% and this guy only went down 15%." Big deal who cares. It still won't make it to your 45 unless we see a market that goes up very damn near a close percentage. Maybe the market goes up 10% and it goes up 13%. Still went up with the market. Oh yes and then you'll come on here and claim it was all the manipulation and that you don't understand what is going on yadd yadda yadda. Just like you did the last time you were so damn wrong with like 8 0% of your claims.[/QUOTE] Wow, you really are stupid. It's scary just how amazingly stupid and foolish you are. The WHOLE market being up doesn't mean ALL stocks will be up. DRYS, BUD, RIMM, GE, GOOG, etc, are all down on this highly green day. Shouldn't they be up with TYC? You're nothing but a big-mouthed ignoramous who understands nothing about the market. Dry up and blow away, fool. Anyway, I was right. It was a bad short at the time Spore mentioned it, and I'm sure it'll go to 45+. :)"

scottlarock said: "[QUOTE=Cryogenix;64381]Wow, you really are stupid. It's scary just how amazingly stupid and foolish you are. The WHOLE market being up doesn't mean ALL stocks will be up. DRYS, BUD, RIMM, GE, GOOG, etc, are all down on this highly green day. Shouldn't they be up with TYC? You're nothing but a big-mouthed ignoramous who understands nothing about the market. Dry up and blow away, fool. Anyway, I was right. It was a bad short at the time Spore mentioned it, and I'm sure it'll go to 45+. :)[/QUOTE] Yeah let me go post on all of your "oh buy this one guys" posts where you are like 8 0% wrong."

Cryogenix said: "[QUOTE=scottlarock;64398]Yeah let me go post on all of your "oh buy this one guys" posts where you are like 8 0% wrong.[/QUOTE] Err...you definitely have that percentage wrong. You're looking at everything from an investing standpoint, where I'm looking at most things as day/swing trades unless there's potential for a longterm gain that's worthwhile. I'm always hoping to go long, but I can usually see when things are about to fall apart and get out before it happens. You can continue making yourself look foolish, though. I'm enjoying it. :laugh:"

SporeMonger said: "I'm putting a stop on TYC at 43. Recent price action suggests a possible rise in price. Another words, it's beginning to get some attention and is now trading in larger swings while chopping sideways. It's going to break in one direction or another. The gig is up!"

Cryogenix said: "Last: 42.26 (high 42.32, low 41.28 - VOL 4,7 8 6,103) Very nice gain today and up .50 in AH. This might turn into a mega-brontochomp pattern, where you get a small hump, followed by a larger hump, followed by a long neck that will stretch to $45+. I'm also holding, but am going to shoot for $45 or $46, per my original prediction. You should be able to get 43.00 easy."

Cryogenix said: "Last: 40.99 Currennty: 39.82 (low) Nearly back to my buy-in price, today is a critical spot on the chart. If it closes 40.00 or better, I'd expect a major climb to happen. If below 39.85, I'd say it's likely to tank. Anywhere in between, it's anyone's guess, so I'd stay out until a direction is clear."

Cryogenix said: "Last: 40.18 On second thought, if I were a gambling man, I'd say short this sucker heavy on next session's high. I think it's ready to go down. I looked at the pattern wrong."

scottlarock said: "[QUOTE=Cryogenix;65541]Last: 40.18 On second thought, if I were a gambling man, I'd say short this sucker heavy on next session's high. I think it's ready to go down. I looked at the pattern wrong.[/QUOTE] Why would you short it??? It is going to 45+, REMEMBER??? You said it would and you were so sure that you even called me a big-mouthed ignoramus!!! It had a bouncing boobies pattern!!! I mean, THAT is a sure fire method. I mean, worst case is they bounce over Betty's shoulders and stay elevated through that precise charting methodology."

newinvestor123 said: "[QUOTE=1997zj;63374]hmmm Cyro may be onto something!! check out the new TYC graph...see any trends? [IMG]http://i159.photobucket.com/albums/t137/jeeper87/23232323232323232323.jpg[/IMG][/QUOTE] Oh man, I can't believe I missed this... zj, you are a genius. :roll:"

Cryogenix said: "[QUOTE=scottlarock;65545]Why would you short it??? It is going to 45+, REMEMBER??? You said it would and you were so sure that you even called me a big-mouthed ignoramus!!! It had a bouncing boobies pattern!!! I mean, THAT is a sure fire method. I mean, worst case is they bounce over Betty's shoulders and stay elevated through that precise charting methodology.[/QUOTE] Hey, Ex-Lax! Long time no whine! Leave it to you to find the one negative thing out of 20 positive things to bitch about. You know, being so negative all the time is really no way to live. I think you'd be happier if you tried to contribute to this place in a more positive way. But, alas, my words continue to fall upon the ears of the pathetic and hopeless. :roll: BTW, I noticed you haven't revisted my SKNY thread to open your flap since it went from .055 to .035 to .10 since your idiotic rant about how bad a trade it was for dropping two cents - when I said that decline was probably needed to shake out all the new money that had come in. [quote]...you even called me a big-mouthed ignoramus!!![/quote] But...you ARE. And you prove it everytime you post something. :roll: For the interested, here's why I changed my mind about where TYC is going. First and foremost, I play the odds. Until last session, the odds were favoring a climb off the chart. With this close, there's now a pattern that has a 90% chance of creating a major decline - it's a head-and-shoulders variation. The only thing different I see is a small chunk has been taken out of the rightside of the middle peak. Perhaps that changes the outcome of this particular pattern and it will actually climb to $45. I don't know - which is why I flip-flopped last session; that chunk is unusual and I can't determine what it means. Since there are other stocks with charts with a clearer direction, I'll play them instead. Newinvestor, that's the last time I try to save your ass from losing money, ya fucking ingrate. You bought BRLC at 1.85 (it never returned to your buy-in price, then dropped to 1.50, then .70) and I told you it was a bad idea and to wait, and said I'd posted a graph in my BRLC thread for you to look at. Then you bought JMBA at 2.85 (if never returned even close to your buy-in price and dropped .40+) and I said that was a bad idea because it was going down. From now on, I'm going to let you continue to make bad trades and lose your money, and not give you any warnings of impending declines. Aside from a few good gold trades, you are the the single-worst trader I've ever seen. Actually, you and Airelon are tied for that honor. :laugh:"

Cryogenix said: "Last: 41.86 (high 41.56, low 39.18 - VOL 6,172,051) If you do some basic research you'll find that bearish head and shoulders patterns don't always lead to a decline - in fact, they're really 50/50 at best - so it's possible this will go to $45. But it'll do so without me. I'm liking DE and VFC much better. More predictable."

AlfredSokol said: "Truly I find that most technical signs are inaccurate a good deal of the time."

Cryogenix said: "[QUOTE=AlfredSokol;65718]Truly I find that most technical signs are inaccurate a good deal of the time.[/QUOTE] Currently: 42.86 (high) :) I've found the same. I feel if this whole game could be played accurately simply by reading a book on patterns that are fed to us by the so-called experts, everyone would be rich, which is why I consider historic patterns at times when it makes sense, but tend to favor finding my own patterns to go on. The only "normal" patterns I pay attention to are double tops/bottoms and head-and-shoulders and sometimes earnings flags. If a particular "normal" pattern makes sense with the news, market, etc, then I'll give it more weight in deciding what to do. However, the odds have to be in my favor, otherwise I pass. If there's one negative thing, I have to have three positive things to counteract it. If I can't find them, I stay out. With TYC, you had a head-and-shoulders, a weakening market, a top-heavy price, etc, etc. Far too many negative to risk it. Most times, I go contrary to what the general vibe appears to be, because I believe the news and market try to trick us into believing something's bad (so we'll stay out) then it climbs and we miss profits. Or they tell feed us great things about a stock (so we'll buy in, like with BUD) then it tanks. It's a tricky game that requires a lot of common sense and observations and reading between the lines."

Cryogenix said: "Last: 44.57 (high 45.22, low 44.46 - VOL 2,300,475) Case and point: It bluffed a drop with that head-and-shoulders, scaring me out, and then climbed to where I originally said it would go. :laugh: Looks like the chunk that was taken out of the rightside of the head on that head-and-shoulders was outcome-altering afterall. I'll remember that for next time, only with another stock - since patterns don't tend to repeat in the same chart (aside from real-time intraday)."