Liviu's Portfolio

Liviu said: "Hey guys, thought I'd let you know what I'm investing in and solicit some feedback. I'd also really love to see each serious investor on this forum start a thread listing a company he/she is buying [U]at the time they're buying it [/U] and why. That way I know who's analysys, opinions and hunches I can trust more than others :D or my own. I know we stock market investors have a selective ;) memory when recalling our stock picks... I cashed in all my stocks in the last couple of months in order to invest in new companies, and I'm picking them more carefully this time. I gotta say I did great for my first time investing (115% in 1.5 years), but it was mostly due to 2 companies. I invested in Elan (ELN) at $5.15 and sold at $29 in less than 12 months. My only regret was not selling all my possessions and putting everything in the company. :D For those of you that are checking the charts, it was more luck than anything... really. The other one was Tickets.com. I invested at $.55 and got bought out at $1.10. First new company I invested in this year: [B]Excel Maritime Carriers (EXM) [/B] - I bought shares on Friday at $13.22/share. They're a water-transport company specializing in dry bulk cargoes. They have an excellent balance sheet, they tripled their number of ships from last year (from 6 to 18), and it's trading at a P/E of 5. The stock was at a high of $65 late in '04 but it got crushed back down to a low of $11.85. The reason for the negative outlook on the company is weakness in the water transport industry which is temporary in my opinion. I think that just like the stock soared way too high for the fundamentals in '04, it's curently a bargain. GDP is forcasted to grow at about 4.5% during each of the next 2 years so I'm bullish on the water-transport industry as a whole and obviously on this company. I'm hoping for at least a 100% return within the next 12 months, although I'm ready to hold it longer. Feedback appreciated. I chose another company I will invest in by the end of this week... I'll post which company it is after I buy."

lil dickie said: "Thanks for the post Liviu. It's always great to get some new ideas from other investors."

HappyHarry said: "Thanks for pointing this one out. This is the type of company I love! Look at their [url=http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=EXM&annual]numbers[/url] Over 300% in the last 3 years and earnings are great. I'm definitely checking this one out."

LanceJ said: "[QUOTE=Liviu] The stock was at a high of $65 late in '04 but it got crushed back down to a low of $11.85. The reason for the negative outlook on the company is weakness in the water transport industry which is temporary in my opinion. I think that just like the stock soared way too high for the fundamentals in '04, it's curently a bargain.[/QUOTE] What it looks like happened is that 2004 Q2 EPS were $0.74 giving the company a good valuation. Then comes along Q3 and the EPS dropped to $0.49 making it overvalued. The stock fell to a market determined fair valuation. Today, the valuation on this company looks excellent. You would have to go back to Q1 of 2004 to get a valuation this good, when EPS was $0.75. Back to the present, analysts gave the word that estimated EPS would be $0.77 for Q2 2005... a negative earning surprise hit as the actual EPS turned out to be $0.65. I like the company and what they do, and with China consuming the very things they ship, I would expect their EPS to continue to rise slowly. The P/E is 5.4... but this is a classical example of why it's not good to just use the P/E..earnings can be fudged... but sales... the P/S is 3.81 so sales are not priced cheaply. However, their not too expensive either, with the shipping industry average coming in at 2.9 it's certainly not terrible, and with a P/B of 1.17.. we have mixed signals here... :rolleyes: I want them to work at increasing sales income and would be looking for such news stories indicating the board/company is trying to do this. The chart is a little troubling. Don't get me wrong, I love "buy on weakness" plays, but that's a buy when the bottom has been reached. Technically speaking, I see no logic reason that the downward trend will end. A trend will continue until that trend actually ends. On days the stock trades sideways, assume continuation of the previous trend. We see a crossover of the 50 day MA, but then a subsequent fall back to... we've had this behavior around June 14th where the crossover did not signal an end to the downward trend, so while the price appears to be improving and is at the 50 day MA, until it crosses above, and holds, making a move toward the 200 day MA, I would caution new investors to wait. However, volume looks sweet. We have an upward trend forming in volume that began several weeks ago, so I'd take a coin and flip it at this point... we have both bullish and bearish indicators... but if you want to try and get in at the beginning of an upward trend and then ride this baby up, I would wait until technically the chart improves (which if volume continues its upward trend we would expect this soon). Overall my opinion is: NICE PICK, and I agree that EXM is at bargain prices."

Liviu said: "[QUOTE=LanceJ] What it looks like happened is that 2004 Q2 EPS were $0.74 giving the company a good valuation. Then comes along Q3 and the EPS dropped to $0.49 making it overvalued. The stock fell to a market determined fair valuation. [/QUOTE] I agree with you that it was the earnings that drove the price down, I just meant that weakness in the transport rates was the reason for the decreased earnings. Part of the reason for the weakness was adjustments in China's inventories, according to Excel. [QUOTE=LanceJ]The chart is a little troubling. Don't get me wrong, I love "buy on weakness" plays, but that's a buy when the bottom has been reached. Technically speaking, I see no logic reason that the downward trend will end. A trend will continue until that trend actually ends. On days the stock trades sideways, assume continuation of the previous trend.[/QUOTE] Since when does logic have anything to do with the stock price? ;) Only half-kidding though. I picked this stock as a solid investment, not as a quick play. I'm thinking 12-36 months depending mostly on continued global GDP forcasts and dry-bulk ship supply. I like the management of this company, all the top execs are very experienced in the industry and what's not to love about their balance sheet. I also like the fact that they have never bought a brand new ship. All the ships they acquired were used. And since they have a majority of their ships on "spot" instead of contracted out for 12-24 months, they will be in an excellent position to benefit from a rise in prices. The way I looked at it was like this: A) If prices don't improve and EPS stay the same, I hold on to the stock. B) If prices drop I will still hold on to the stock, or if it's competitors decrease the number of ships, I will buy more. C) If prices increase again, Excel's profits will be very strong again and so will it's stock price. I'm not disputing your conclusion that the downward trend will continue, but I was under the impression that you couldn't predict if the stock will go lower or higher. Even if you're right, I'm willing to hold on. But it's up 7% since I bought on Friday."

AlfredSokol said: "I see they tripled their fleet from 6 to 18 ships last year. How did they finance this?"

LanceJ said: "[QUOTE=Liviu]I'm not disputing your conclusion that the downward trend will continue, but I was under the impression that you couldn't predict if the stock will go lower or higher. Even if you're right, I'm willing to hold on. But it's up 7% since I bought on Friday.[/QUOTE] A trend will continue until that trend actually ends. On days the stock trades sideways, assume continuation of the previous trend."

AlfredSokol said: "Hybernius initiates coverage on [url=http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/050825/093934.html]EXM as a buy[/url]"

Liviu said: "[QUOTE=AlfredSokol]I see they tripled their fleet from 6 to 18 ships last year. How did they finance this?[/QUOTE] They issued new stock in 11/04 and 03/05. For those of you interested, the Wall Street Reporter [URL=http://www.wallstreetreporter.com/profiles/ExcelMaritimeCarriersLtd.html]interviewed[/URL] Excel's CEO - Christopher Giorgakis about the company's prospects, about the outlook of the dry bulk industry, and the effects of fuel prices on the company. Looks like investors like what they heard. The stock is up over 4% today."

Liviu said: "Made my second investment this year: [B]Interpublic Group Of Companies (IPG)[/B] - Just bought shares at $12.07. IPG is the third largest advertising firm in the world based on revenue. Because they've spent too much for acquisitions they made during the 90's, and relied on acquisitions for growth instead of growth from within, they've sufferred the past few years. Not having their financial reporting straightened out didn't help them either. However, the company is nearing the end (I hope) of a lengthy turnaround that has as main objectives to emphasize organic growth and cost cutting through restructuring. WPP Group PLC, one of IPG's biggest competitor, reported a 38% jump in 1st half pretax profit and a big improvement in their operating margin. Revenue grew 22% in the first half alone. The CEO said that it was because corporate profits world-wide were "fat". The other biggest competitor of IPG - Omnicom, also reported strong revenue growth in the 1st half of '05. Advertising groups across the board have been announcing robust growth in the first half with accelerating revenue growth. Analysts predict Interpublic will be profitable in 2005. Interpublic is supposed to release their 2004 and 2005 financial statements by 09/30, and I'm hoping for a 100%-200% return within the next 24 months."

AlfredSokol said: "Interesting pick. I'm very familiar with IPG and that could work out well."

Liviu said: "Excel Maritime Carriers announce on Tuesday, 09/06/05, that the stock (EXM) will now trade on the NYSE. It promptly goes from around $14.40 to $16.32 right now and seems like it will continue to go up. Why is the market responding to the news buy buying like this? Or is it possible that the buying has nothing to do with the announcement?"

alhamid said: "i have been watching this stock and i wish i had bought when you announced it. people must figure going in the nyse is vote of confidence."