Can I really make money in the markets?

investortoby said: "I've lost $150,000 in the commodities markets over a 2 year period. I started 20 different systems that as soon as I started trading each one they went into more than triple their largest drawdown in their entire history. Can anyone please show me how to make money?"

HappyHarry said: "Sure. First, stop expecting a system to make you money. Second, learn to cut your losses faster. The biggest thing for trading success is discipline. You need a plan and you need to stick to it. $150,000 is quite a bit of tuition. What have you learned from the losses? BTW, welcome aboard."

chahinemm said: "welcome aboard well i can tell u that is an expensive way to learn but. the question i have is how much more u want to invest? lets start to create a strategy that is custom to your style, 1 - are you risk averse? like to take heavy or lowest risk 2 - in what do u want to invest 3 - do u have a current strategy? 4 - what is ur short term and long term goal? 5 - do u do ur own research or follow services? i think from this question i will have a fairly general idea of what style of investor u are. i cant guaranty that you will make money but for sure you will understand your limits a bit more and maybe move on the track of making money in the short future. well at least i hope it will help :D chahine"

investortoby said: "thank you so much! 1 - are you risk averse? like to take heavy or lowest risk lowest risk now but can become aggressive if I need too. 2 - in what do u want to invest penny stock gains for now, then shorts, MAYBE someday back into commodities 3 - do u have a current strategy? study, paper trade, study, paper trade etc. I am watching some RSI, Stochastics, BBands, volume, and trending averages. I can give you the settings if you want. 4 - what is ur short term and long term goal? short term goal: find someone who makes money and learn from them. also keep looking for real sound methods find a cheap way to back test systems make paper profits somewhat consistently before trading again. long term: make a ton of money (millions) to finance a charity organization and my wife's dreams of building communities. 5 - do u do ur own research or follow services? I haven't found a decent service yet. I watch the charts now. I subscribe to Telechart Gold TC2005. Where I screwed up before was not testing a system and watching it for a while before I traded it. I just jumped in to fast and wasn't patient. I believed all the crap they had on their websites about how much they made in the past that was really just curve fitted wins. I was thinking of [url]www.elliottician.com[/url] for $3,000 or VantagePoint Software $5,000 (commodities only) [url]www.TraderTech.com[/url] I have $15,000 to trade stock only right now. I will be adding $35,000 to that in the next year because of a settlement I will be getting from a previous employer."

AlfredSokol said: "$15,000 is plenty, unless you drop $5000 for a program! Resist the urge to buy software. Trading is not that complicated and does not require any special software to accomplish."

Heather said: "Good luck to you! It is always a wise idea to have a trading plan. You should have a basic understanding of the stocks that yoy trade in. If possible, it is good to diversify as well. A few stocks you are planning on holding short term and a few for the lonf term. Setting stop losses is always a good thing to do, because you won't completely lose your butt in the event of a sharp decline or up swing.. Most advise 8% for that.. Anyhow, welcome to superiorinvestor.net Happy Trading!"

InvestorMan said: "[SIZE=3][FONT=Verdana]I can help you, Toby. Penny stocks are a good idea, if you know how to minimize your risk and still maximize your reward. I know how to do that and I'm the best around. I specialize in the most reliable penny stock market in the world, the TSX Venture Exchange. Now, just as a disclaimer, I should tell you that I don't have statistical evidence proving the TSX is the most reliable venture exchange. That's just my opinion. I'm comfortable with it. Through the TSX and with my advice, I can help you double your portfolio in less than a year. As for risk, you've been through a lot already, so I don't want to fiddle-fart with risk-reward ratios and try to curveball you. Let's set a hard dollar figure to the risk, so that's it well-defined. In other words, let's say that in order for me to help you double your portfolio, you shouldn't have to risk more than 10% of the value of your portfolio, which in your case would be $1,500.00. Just to be on the safe side, let's double that to 20%, i.e. $3,000.00. You've already lost $150,000.00. Would you be willing to risk another $3,000.00 to double your portfolio within a year? I'm sure you would. I know at this rate, it'll take a while to rebuild your portfolio back to it's former glory days, but it's the best I can promise you with relative certainty and I'm certain it's better than anyone else will do for you, Toby. As a matter of fact, I've got my eye on a few good picks that could get you started tomorrow, if you like, but my stock picks are valuable and I don't usually give them away on public forums. InvestorMan[/FONT][/SIZE]"

chahinemm said: "[QUOTE=LanceJ] I don't want to step on Chahinemm's toes here, so depending on what he has to say, you may want to consider my Sticky Six picks in the Let's Talk Stocks forum. These are more defensive plays (taking a defensive stance) by following 3 months behind what the professional money managers are doing (via their 13f filings). These are lower risk stocks than penny stocks, and don't require the use of margin as shorting does. That's my opinion. [/QUOTE] You are :p just kidding i actually prefer that more people step in and try to create a strong possibility of success then a failure. my first suggestion is to change your stance of trading you seem too be impatient and of the same style i found a way around it by investing 75% to 90% of my portfolio into defencive stocks where there is growth but a slower one. i always keep the remaining 10% into a more just throwing out of the window strategy because i m the kind of investor that like activity into it, think about your style and how you can make it more patient and controlled, look at stocks at least 5 to 10 years behind (buffett would say) after you have done that ill suggest looking into different existing strategies like buffetts, meryll lynch and some other i cant think,,, after that look at some technical trading strategies that exist that will give u a vast idea of what is available from there if u have any business experience (if not read couple of business strategy or new venture formation books such as strategic management which will give ua good idea of analysing a business at a business level) after start digging for businesses or product that u as a person would be willing to buy the product of and even annoy the companies and other customers about their taughts on the product, if u find something solid move toward the financial style this will give u the basis of understanding the business... i always recomment doing the research urself as if u make the mistake and loose u blame no 1 except urself but if some1 makes the mistake it hurts more because u could have avoided the loss. one last peace of advice is never let ur emotions take over,,,, if u feel overwhelmed go take a shower and then come back or go eat an ice cream :D and then come back... after such a loss the only level i suggest is to play 10 safe stocks that will grow at a certain level of known rate every year then gamble with 1 stock that may go up or not. i think i have been rambling a lot of in this one as its 0:40 over here in france and have not proof read it but if u have any questions ask dont hesitate every1 will try to help you as much as possible.... i know of services that people have used and made money but i have never been into it... for my trading style i have taken warrents defensive value investing strategy and made it a bit more adaptable for me. chahine"

investortoby said: "You're right. I am impatient. And I was thinking some kind of software might help me be more slow and steady or at least help filter out some good trades."

chahinemm said: "i think no software will be able to help you but a bit of experience which would mean some persistence of continuing in this direction and slowly over time you will able to assume more risk safely. i know sounds akward but as ur experience will grow u will be able to spot opportunities faster and if everything goes according to plan able to spot the homerunner before every1 else. chahine"

AlfredSokol said: "Automated trading is the dream of many a person, but its no subsitute for research. Just research a handful of stocks and keep a very focused portfolio of only the stocks that truly have logical reasons to move upwards."

prohobo said: "I want you to think about what I am about to type. Very seriously! I have been in the market (on the non retail side) for 20 years. Never (NEVER) would a pro firm BUY a system. Our firm and the firms that I worked for in the past - build there own and keep them VERY secret. It is their edge. If there was a system for sale that made money - do you REALLY think they would sell it? I meet with the owner of a trading system that cost $3000 a few years ago when they first came out. The trading system had partnered with a broker firm that I know the president of. The brokerage firm said that the trading system was spending (back then) about $100k a MONTH marketing their software, trade shows, infomericals, etc. The brokerfirm partnered to capture the order flow (commision) from the trading system. When I meet with the designer of the system. I asked - why the HELL would you sell something if it worked? You are spending MILLIONS per year marketing it and MILLIONS to support it. If it worked so great - as you say in your marketing - (make 50% in a single trade) - then why not take those millions in marketing money and pump it into the system and make some serious coin instead of hawking your system to retail people. He looked a me and said one word "Bingo!", I smiled an walked away. It works when it does! Systems being hawked at trade shows and on infomercials do not (CONSISTANTLY) work. They do when they do. In my experience I have seen many systems WORK - but NONE are forsale. They are kept under lock and key. At one firm I was at - they had a system they were using - when people came to the office to visit - all the monitors were turned off. They didn't want people to SEE what they were doing. Systems fall into several camps. Techinicals (which are most of what you see for sale on the internet and at trade shows) - these look good and work when they work. But they are never something that work ALL THE TIME. Most are a waste of money and can be built fairly easy. Techs are the basic basic of all systems. These can be used as triggers - but beyound that they are NOT strategies. Pairs (these systems work and you can buy software to set-up the pairs - but you have to do some work yourself.) Rebalances (these systems work - but also need alot of tweaking and work) Arbs (these systems work - but you have to build them.) Special Deal (these systems work - but only for certain events/products/time) Volatiliyt Arbs (timber hill - this system works - but is very complex) --------------------------------- That being said - you can trade a couple of stocks and make some money - but that is very very hard to be consistant. A trading system has to continue to make money month-after-month. Trading is like baseball - you are just trying to get base hits. Trying to hit homers is going to never work. The point of baseball is to win the world series (from hitting singles and winning games not homers) - SF Giants Bonds hit many home runs (home run king) they never one the series with him! Systems (auto mated) allows you to deploy larger money in a bigger spread, fast execution, auto-hedging, and better risk management. It is very hard "Clicking" a mouse one or two stocks and "Hope" to make money - even with an off-the-shelf system. I have seen it done, but those people have "something" I don't know what it is. They are also VERY displine and know TWO THINGS - their target price and loss (stop) price - before they EVER get into the trade. I couldn't do that I wouldn't know how. You can train a monkey to bang on a keyboard or click a mouse to follow a trading system. What seperates out the REAL winners are those that think OUT-SIDE-THE-BOX. Pushing the limits, designing their OWN system, understanding the mechanics and properties of the financial products. They understand the relationships between products. Our firm operates on the prinicpal of Xerox PARC - we bring very talented people and give them freedom to push the limits and design new things. We don't want a Havard MBA with conventional wisdowm and then TRAIN him. We are looking for that college drop out, the hacker, the poker player, the bridge player, etc. They have to have PASSION for it, DREAM it, LIVE it. Just like the great book Unfair Advantage about Mark Donhaue the race car driver that pushed everything, broke conventional wisdom, found the EDGE. They alway complained after he won race after race - that he had an Unfair Advantage. The point of racing (just like trading) is to WIN. Mark never cheated - he just found EDGE - building the better car - breaking from conventional thought. I would rather have the 20 year-old kid at our firm that questions the Black-Shoales formula - than the 30 year-old MBA grade that just accepts it as fact. Sorry about the long post. I use to lecture at colleges and trade shows - I just hate seeing retail people searching, hoping, wanting to find the magic system. When I see these retail people - they never (for the most part) want to do some heavy lifting. They just want to buy something that works. That is why the snake oil salesman will forever make money. Most people at a trade show are looking for a way to make money - they have no love for trading. They just want to be rich. I love this so much - that I would be doing this if it only paid a salary of $30k per year. I do it because I love it. The money we make is a by product of our passion for it. I go in on the weekends to the office with our programmer and partner and work on systems, test things, check systems. This is something we live for - it's our world. I find only a very few retail people that really understand this is a business - not a hobby. They have no passion and are just looking for the NEXT system and HOPE it works. When you do that you never really take responsiblity for your trading. When the TIPS or SYSTEM works you pat yourself on the back (As if YOU are a good trader), but when it doesn't work you BLAME the tip service or the system. That means you will never take accountablitilty or responsibilty for your actions OR accomplishments. I don't mean to sound harsh - I am just giving you my view. I am no genius, I am never always right (but not afraid to be wrong), I don't ALWAYS make money - we lose sometimes. However - I have been doing it for 20 years. I do make a living doing it. I don't have a pay check (havent in 18 years). So I live off my trading. I KNOW how hard it is - you never stop learning - never stop pushing. We have been working on two systems for over a year and one goes on line next month. A YEAR of building it and Back Testing, A YEAR trading it with a very small acount (testing execution, slippage, etc.) Only after 2 years is it going online with real money. Most of our systems take 6 months to 2 years to build. We are always tweaking them - adopting new ideas. They are like a engine and need care and tuning. All this (above) pertains to TRADING - NOT INVESTING. There is a HUGE difference. Trading for a living means you have to pay your bills from your ability to make money. Investing is something that everyone should be doing. I took the time to write this because if I KNEW the OP personally. I would of stopped him from trading away his $150k and sat him down and walked him through what he NEEDS to do if he wishes to really become a trader (not investor). It makes me want to puke that some snakeoil salesman took $2k to $5k from some retail investor, promissing they would make money, and watch them lose $100s of thousands. I want to just PUNCH that salesman out! It's taking advantage of people - those trade shows are just targeting people's wallets. Seperating a fool from their money. They wonder around aimless looking for the booth that is Selling the Magic System. The Secrets. Etc. Building your system - do NOT tell anyone - make money - build a track record. I will leave you with this challenge. If you can build YOUR own system. Quantify it (so it can be automated). Formulas. Show that it can be scaled up. Quantify the risk. Show a track record. You provide the P&L projections, volatilty, max draw-down/gain. We then can (or you can) back test it with 2-4 years worth of data. If it does work as you state, track record, and testing. I will BUY it for $5000 or back you at the firm (with our captial) and give you a 50/50 split on profits."