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I am bearish

alhamid said: "Lots of very bad news all the time. I don't think its a good time to invest. what do you think?"

LanceJ said: "I think my Sticky Six message thread answers my opinion on this, and the SS portfolio is doing quite well. Warren Buffett stated that he doesn't pay too much attention to the overall market or major indices. When he sees a company he likes, at a discount (excellent valuation), he buys it. I'm going to tell you something that a master trader taught me years ago. There is always a bull market going on somewhere. Take for example the bull market going on in Uranium. Most people think, yeah, the stock market hasn't been very good since 2001, the period after the tech bubble burst. But if you were in Uranium or Uranium related companies, you could have made as much as 400% (100% per year on average), and probably more depending on the company you invested in. Identify and Track Whoever/Whatever Takes the Lead There is always a bull market going on somewhere. When bull or bear market leaders finally falter, the market usually reverses direction. The trick is to identify and track whoever takes the lead."

IntelligentInvestor said: "Actually, if you make 100% compounded over 4 years, that would be 1,500%... Cause you double your investment 4 times, which equals 16 times, which equals 1,500%... And that is a pretty impressive bull market for uranium the last 2 years indeed... LanceJ, how do you spot the bull markets of each time period??"

LanceJ said: "[QUOTE=IntelligentInvestor]Actually, if you make 100% compounded over 4 years, that would be 1,500%... Cause you double your investment 4 times, which equals 16 times, which equals 1,500%... And that is a pretty impressive bull market for uranium the last 2 years indeed... LanceJ, how do you spot the bull markets of each time period??[/QUOTE] You'd end up with 400% more than you original invested at the end of 4 years if your investment simply tracked the more conservative price of Uranium chart. The 100% per year is the "simple average", don't compound per year. How do you spot the bull markets of each time period? Two words. Reading and research. Warren Buffett often speaks of how he does LOTS and LOTS of reading. On the research front, one method you can use is "top down" research. Find the broad index first, then focus in on specific companies second. For example, let's use the FREE Yahoo Finance to screen. Go to [url]http://finance.yahoo.com/indices[/url] Click on the different Exchanges across the top. Then click on Components to "zoom in". For example, click on OTHER US, then click on Philadelphia Semiconductor CHART. You can see the CHART looks pretty good, next click on Components and begin researching each company. There's better resources out there than Yahoo Finance to do this with, but you get the idea. It's top down research... first identify the industry/sector that is having a bull market, next, identify the company within that industry that has "taken the lead" as the industry leader. And sometimes this isn't good enough. But at least you are asking the question, and it is the questions that drive us forward in becoming the "Superior Investor"."

alhamid said: "1 million people are out of work in the south because of the hurricane this has to affect companies negatively"

Heather said: "I'm feeling bearish today as well."

IntelligentInvestor said: "What about insurance?? Do most of these people have hurricane or storm-related insurance?? That would kill insurane companies in the long-run with all the payments.... But if they don't have storm insurance, they are fairly screwed themselves.... I live up here in Toronto so I don't know if a lot of storms hit New Orleans and if those people buy that type of insurance or not... but if a lot of them have it... there goes the cash from the insurance companies.... Lance, do you follow a lot of Buffett's investment philosophies??? because I notice you mention him a lot. I'm currently reading "The New Buffettology". I think it's a pretty good book but it's like a rigid step-by-step philosophy of picking good stocks/companies. Like "One Up On Wall Street" is a much better stock selection book overall because it gives you the general ideas, tells you too shoot the for 10 baggers, goes over psychology, six types of stocks, what to avoid, what he likes (13 pts), just more detailed in general... Gives you choice... It empowers you as an individual investor I feel, rather than give you formulas ya know... Ya, most of us who read know that there was a huge bear market from March 2000 to October 2002... the US stock market lost 50% of its value!!!!!... So Lance, did you gets your hands on some uranium stocks over the last few years to make some enormous profits????"

LanceJ said: "[QUOTE=IntelligentInvestor]Lance, do you follow a lot of Buffett's investment philosophies??? because I notice you mention him a lot. I'm currently reading "The New Buffettology". I think it's a pretty good book but it's like a rigid step-by-step philosophy of picking good stocks/companies. [/QUOTE] Good, glad you like the book. Another great way to get first hand knowledge of Buffett also is to go through the 13f filings with the SEC. Here, you're not dealing with an author's interpretation or anything like that, you can see exactly what the sage of Omaha is doing, then do your own research on the very same companies he is buying, and get the best, unbiased, "source knowledge" of Buffett's current investment strategy. No, I did not get in on Uranium earlier, in fact, I think right now is the perfect time to get in on Uranium... my first move into a Uranium play is my Penny Stock Pick Northwestern, a high risk, high reward situation in the Penny Stocks forum if you're interested. I'm keeping my eye out for other Uranium plays, and when the valuation looks good, I'll keep you posted (within 24 hours of my own purchase of the security). So far, except for Northwestern and a few others, the valuation on some Uranium exploration companies is outrageous... these companies have had quite a run over the last year and I'm not buying until I can get at discount. I encourage anyone who is going to add a Uranium company to their portfolio to crunch the numbers... lots of these companies, in my opinion, are overvalued. Don't chase these mineral companies."

LanceJ said: "Analyzing another Uranium play that is less risky than Northwestern... its numbers look promising and should be coming out with it by the end of next week, maybe earlier."

trickynick said: "[QUOTE=alhamid]Lots of very bad news all the time. I don't think its a good time to invest. what do you think?[/QUOTE] If you believe things can't get any worse then you should buying. You sure won't make any money if the only time you ever buy is when it's obvious to everyone that everything is going great, you'll pay too much that way. For what it's worth, my personal prediction is that it is realistic to expect the annualized GDP growth rate to decrease by one third to one half for 2005 but a recession will not occur. This assumes that the recent spike in energy prices will be temporary. If otherwise proves to be the case we may be in trouble."

LanceJ said: "The energy spike is not temporary, it's part of a larger upward trend that will not go away or return to normal. We are running out of replenishable resources to convert to energy. Gasoline prices will easily rise to over $5 per gallon in the near future. What you are currently witnessing is nothing less than sector rotation. We are transitioning into an energy market. Energy will be on everyones lips, energy will be on the front headlines of all the newspapers, and energy will be on all the talking head financial shows. Energy, Energy, ENERGY. It's going to all be about energy, once energy asserts its dominant place in the foodchain by eating alive other companies in other sectors. Energy is king, and the king is coming to take the throne. This is why now is the time to allocate some of your portfolio to Nuclear Power which is the future as all major countries are scrambling to build nuclear power plants. These nuclear power plants will consume Uranium at first. I've got a Uranium play in the Penny Stocks forum, and a less risky, very large company traded on a major exchange is coming soon."

LanceJ said: "Did I say we are running out of replenishable resources?? LOL... no more Rock Star energy drink for me.... I meant non-renewable resources.. Not only that, but the Kyoto accord is limiting opportunities to build power plants that burn fossil fuels. Nuclear power is suddenly no longer taboo. The Uranium market is also very small at the moment. Global demand totals 180 million pounds a year, roughly double the world's annual mine production."

IntelligentInvestor said: "There's always something to worry about in the economy according to Peter Lynch.. If you always worry about what's going on in the economy and around the world, you'll find it hard to invest in stocks. But the fact of the matter is, the stock markets has compounded annually 10% on average for like the last 80 years... That's WW2, the Vietnam War, a few assassinations, a 16 year bear market from 1966-1982, 2 Gulf Wars, 9/11, impeachment, tech bubble..... If you're in it for the long haul, you shouldn't be scared... Look for great companies selling at discount values... Do it the Buffett Way ;)"

trickynick said: "[QUOTE=LanceJ]The energy spike is not temporary, it's part of a larger upward trend that will not go away or return to normal.[/QUOTE] The energy spike I was refering to was the spike that is attributable to the hurricane damage. That is [i]already[/i] proving to be temporary. Gasoline prices have come down over the weekend, at least in my part of the country."

LanceJ said: "[QUOTE=trickynick]The energy spike I was refering to was the spike that is attributable to the hurricane damage. That is [i]already[/i] proving to be temporary. Gasoline prices have come down over the weekend, at least in my part of the country.[/QUOTE] Sure. The energy spike due to Hurrican Katrina is temporary, but it's still part of a much larger upward trend. I think it's good to be in energy related companies right now, and you don't have to be on the "bleeding edge" either. Old school coal production will still be profitable until Nuclear Power begins cutting in on their action, which probably won't be for some time. Even with China's first phase of its long range electric power expansion program which includes the building of 27 additional nuclear plants (ultimately China will likely build 100 new nuclear plants), coal producing plants still have time to produce profits for investors."

alhamid said: "higher gas prices means less money in consumer pockets. add to this fact the fact that transportation is more expensive and you have rising costs and lower revenues for many american companies."