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Dow 11,000?

EatMyShorts said: "Bottoms are usually signaled by capitulation and extreme negative sentiment. But this time around our "bottom" of ~11,500 was nothing like that. In fact, CNBC called it a bottom and everyone resumed buying all the way to 13,500. Could it really be that simple? I hope so, but I'm beginning to have my doubts. And to be honest, I wouldn't be shocked to see the market dip under 11,000. Also, there are many potential negative catalysts out there, such as oil, hurricanes, Israel going to war with Iran, continued consumer weakness, bankrupt homebuilders and/or financials, etc. Even with these things, I have to admit I have a good position in RIG and a small position in DE. Thoughts?"

TampaTrader said: "[QUOTE=EatMyShorts;70036]Bottoms are usually signaled by capitulation and extreme negative sentiment. But this time around our "bottom" of ~11,500 was nothing like that. In fact, CNBC called it a bottom and everyone resumed buying all the way to 13,500. Could it really be that simple? I hope so, but I'm beginning to have my doubts. And to be honest, I wouldn't be shocked to see the market dip under 11,000. Also, there are many potential negative catalysts out there, such as oil, hurricanes, Israel going to war with Iran, continued consumer weakness, bankrupt homebuilders and/or financials, etc. Even with these things, I have to admit I have a good position in RIG and a small position in DE. Thoughts?[/QUOTE] I agree, my portfolio is 90% bearish. I did buy RIG calls today :)"

newguy87 said: "I think it's possible for the dow to get to 10500-10800 area when all is said and done. I'm not saying it's gonna happen tomorrow but I think some time in 2009-2010 it could get there. Obviously no one knows what's gonna happen but I think it's certainly in the realm of possibility. I've been saying it's gonna be a 2 wave thing with the financials they are severely wounded and some of their biz models are broken. It's gonna take awhile to fix and I don't see the market or the economy moving robustly again until they become healthy. Now add a looming inflation problem to that mix and you see why I think it's quite possible for the markets to drop."

AlfredSokol said: "I think it could happen but it would require some real shocks for a lot of bellweathers. But anything is possible in the current climate."

newguy87 said: "I'm not even sure if it'll take any real shocks as I don't expect any big Bear Stearns type news to come out any more with the Fed backstop. It'll just be a grind down over time I think."

Aligator said: "Watch how you bet. The dollar is recovering and that will drive oil down. [URL="http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/"]http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/[/URL]"

bjohn13 said: "[QUOTE=Aligator;70122]Watch how you bet. The dollar is recovering and that will drive oil down. [URL="http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/"]http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/[/URL][/QUOTE] I don't know if it will necessarily drive oil down, but I do definitely think we will start to see oil level off. I think we've already seen that over the past couple of weeks. I think you make a good point, though. Right now is a very risky time to be investing in oil."

Aligator said: "[QUOTE=bjohn13;70133]I don't know if it will necessarily drive oil down, but I do definitely think we will start to see oil level off. I think we've already seen that over the past couple of weeks. I think you make a good point, though. Right now is a very risky time to be investing in oil.[/QUOTE] It is indeed a bad time to invest in oil. But my point is that oil seems to have peaked and a decline in the price of oil would probably put the Dow and other indicators back on an upward trend. And an improvement in the dollar value as compared to other currencies will help out the companies who do not have strong overseas sales and have been left behind for the last year or so. I think the time is past to be hollerin' "Bear!". Last October maybe, but not now. After all, we are supposed to be sophisticated enough to know that bear markets start when the market is high."

Tom.StockBlade said: "I do not guess, and neither should anyone. However, i do not like the recent Dow low. There is one number on the Dow, and that is 11508. However, the SP generally drives the ship, but didn't at the March low, it ws the Dow. I am a bit skeptical of Friday's move as the Dow did not make a decent low, the SP low was "ok". I will look at it Monday pre-open and post on our site what I see."